Sell-Side Analysts And Bloggers: H1 2014 List Of Best (And Worst) Calls
Over the past six months there has been a lot of change in the US economy. Many companies have boomed and some have busted. In June alone, the US economy added 288,000 jobs and the Dow hit a record breaking 17,000 points. While some company’s shares soared, others were left in the dust.
The top five best performing stocks for the first half of 2014 were Electronic Arts, Keurig Green Mountain, Forest Laboratories, Nabors Industries, and Newfield Exploration.
The five worst performing stocks over the past six months have been Best Buy, Bed Bath and Beyond, Staples, Whole Foods, and Coach.
HALL OF FAME
When stocks soar, there is great potential to make a nice earning. These analysts correctly rated the best stocks a BUY at prime times to help maximize returns. However, BUYs are not the only great calls in investing. It is equally impressive when a financial expert is able to predict the downfall of a stock, saving the investor from seeing their earning plunge.
Let’s take a look at the analysts that correctly recommended BUYs and SELLs for the first half of 2014.
Sell-Side Analysts and Bloggers – Best Stocks
Newfield Exploration (NFX): +79%
Over the past six months, Newfield Exploration (NYSE:NFX) stock reported a +79% jump in value, becoming the best performing stock of the first half of 2014! On January 13, 2014, Thomas Driscoll of Barclays, maintained a Buy rating on this stock. According toTipranks.com, which measures analysts and bloggers success rate based on how their calls perform, analyst Thomas Driscoll currently has an average return of 10.8% and an overall success rate of 75%. Driscoll has a +39.2% average return when recommending Newfield Exploration.
Nabors Industries (NBR): +73%
The second highest performing stock these past six months was Nabors Industries (NYSE:NBR). Nabor’s stock rose +73% during this period.
Mike Urban of Deutsche Bank maintained a Buy rating on the stock on October 24, 2013. In a Deutsche Bank report, it was noted that, “The company cites Nabors’ better than average fleet, including a large number of high- end rigs in the United States and strong international business to drive growth”. Mike Urban has an overall 85% success rate and a +27.9% average return. He has a 100% success rate and an average return of +73.2% when recommending NBR.
Forest Laboratories (FRX): +65%
The third highest performing stock is Forest Laboratories (FRX), which has gone up by 65% since early January.
Analyst John Eade of Argus Research maintained a Buy rating on FRX on January 14, 2014. Argus noted in a report, that they “suggest a potential upside of 13.69% from the company’s current price”. John Eade has an overall 87% success rate and a +17.1% average return. He has a 100% success rate and an average return of +60.3% when recommending Forest Laboratories.
Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR): +65%
Keurig Green Mountain (NASDAQ:GMCR) has also gone up by 65% during the past six months. Chris Dow a blogger from TheStreet.com recommended investors to buy the stock on when the price was $76.38. When Dow recommended investors to buy this stock on January 6, 2014, he wrote, “The company’s strengths can be seen in multiple areas, such as its revenue growth largely solid financial position with reasonable debt levels by most measures, notable return on equity, expanding profit margins and good cash flow from operations. Although the company may harbor some minor weaknesses, we feel they are unlikely to have a significant impact on results”. This strong assessment of the company, and positive prediction, has helped earn Chris Dow an overall 77% success rate and a +8.6% average return. He has a 100% success rate and an average return of +60.1% when recommending Keurig Green Mountain.
Electronic Arts (EA): +56%
Rounding out the top five list, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ:EA) reported a +56% increase in their stock price for the first half of the year. Matthew Frankel, a top ranked blogger from Motley Fool rated Electronic Arts a Buy back in as early as November 2, 2013, explaining that, “With the new launch of the new consoles expected before the holiday season, there will undoubtedly be an immediate impact on the game developers. Sony’s PlayStation 4 is set to launch in North America on Nov. 5, at an introductory price of $399. The enhanced architecture of the new system has been met with almost universal praise, as did features such as a removable and upgradeable hard drive. Microsoft’s Xbox One will be released a week later on Nov. 22, and at a price of $499, $100 higher than the PS4. Critics have been mixed in their praise of the new Xbox, thinking that the higher price and later release date could crush its holiday sales figures. The list of games already scheduled for the two consoles is extensive and on EA’s end already includes such titles as Battlefield 4, NBA Live ’14, Need for Speed Rivals, Madden NFL 25, as well as several others that should be available for this holiday season.” Frankel’s ability to see the potential of the new systems’ impact on Electronic Arts helped earn him an overall 74% success rate and a +17.7% average return. He has a 100% success rate and an average return of +38.5% when recommending Electronic Arts.
Sell-Side Analysts and Bloggers – Worst Stocks
Coach (COH): -39%
At the top of the list for the worst performing stock for the first half of 2014 was Coach (NYSE:COH), which decreased in value by 39%. Top ranked analyst Michael Olsen of Motley Fool recommended a Sell rating on January 22, 2014, noting that, “They [Coach] missed big in North America” the analyst went on to say that, “Consumer tastes are evolving their positioning within the market is somewhat dubious and they don’t really seem to be resonating with their core customers, it’s just a tough spot to be in”. Michael Olsen has an overall success rate of 69% and and average return of +9.2%. In regards to Coach, he has a 100% success rate and a +38.5% average return.
Whole Foods (WFM): -33%
Whole Foods’ stock (NYSE: WFM) also took a beating this half, decreasing in value by 33%. Seeking Alpha blogger, Naman Shukla recommended a Sell rating on this stock in January 9, 2014, explaining that, “Whole Foods is facing strong competition from the product offerings of its peers. Even though its expansion strategy and store potential look promising, a steep valuation could put investors off. With a P/E ratio of close to 37.18, Whole Foods is quite expensive, especially comparing it to the industry average P/E ratio of 23.87. It has also reduced its growth forecasts, which is another reason why I do not expect any upside from Whole Foods going forward. Hence, Whole Foods looks like a stock to stay away from.” Shukla has a 100% success rate of overall recommendations, earning an average return of 17.2%. Recommending Whole Foods, Shukla has earned an average return of +27.6.
Staples (SPLS): -32%
Third on the list for worst performing stocks is Staples (NYSE:SPLS). The stock has decreased by 32% in the past six months. Top ranked blogger, Alyssa Oursler of InvestorPlace maintained a Sell rating on Staples way back on August 22, 2013, noting that, “Staples faces a more profound problem: It is trying to sell office supplies from storefronts to an increasingly digital world”. Oursler has an overall success rate of 79% with an average return of +15.1%. Regarding Staples, Oursler earned +18.4% average return with a 100% success rate.
Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY): -28%
Another low performing stock has been Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). It’s stock has decreased by 28% these past six months. Motley Fool blogger Brian Sanders recommend to Sell Bed Bath & Beyond stock on December 19, 2013, explaining that, “Bed Bath & Beyond is a great business with a large customer base that continuously grows its financial stability. It does seem, however, that the market has potentially moved ahead of itself, and shares are too expensive. I think upside is limited and investors cannot claim any supplemental yield provided no dividends are being issued. Overall if the market considerably sells off this company, I would find it as a decent opportunity to get into a quality business”. Brian Sanders has an overall success rate of 78% with an average return of +5.5%. Recommending Bed Bath & Beyond, Sanders has a 100% success rate and 23.4% average return.
Best Buy (BBY): -22%
Best Buy (NYSE:BBY) certainly was not a best buy so far in 2014. Over the past six months, Best Buys stock value has gone down by 22%.Seeking Profits blogger maintained a Sell rating in January 9, 2014, explaining that, “Best Buy shares aren’t cheap. With limited pricing power and strong competition from online retailers and discounters, I would be hesitant to pay more than 10-11x operating income or $30-$33. Best Buy will survive, but margins are not coming back to pre-crisis levels. As investors finally recognize this, I expect shares to continue to trend lower”. Seeking Profits has an overall success rate of 63% and an average return of +4.9%. Recommending Best Buy, Seeking Profits has a 100% success rate, earning a 16.5% average return.
Sell-Side Analysts and Bloggers – HALL OF SHAME
The #1 top performing stock these past six months was Newfield Exploration. However, not everyone saw the expectant success of Newfield. Investor Place’s, Portfolio Grader earned his spot in this month’s Hall of Shame for recommending a sell Newfield on December 23, 2013. Portfolio Grader recommended that shareholders sell their NFX shares because, “Since the start of the year, NFX has declined 11.1?.
Portfolio Grader also failed to see the success of Nabors Industries, maintained a Sell rating on this stock on November 6, 2013. Portfolio Grader explained their rating by explaining that, “The stock gets F’s in Earnings Revisions and Cash Flow. The trailing PE Ratio for the stock is 274.80.”
Overall, Portfolio Grader has an average return of -0.3% with a success rate of 38%.
Another inductee into this month’s Hall of Shame is Motley Fool’s Timothy Green, who recommended that investors sell Electronic Arts stock on January 27, 2014. Green wrote , “I’m not optimistic about EA’s earnings, and I think investors and analysts are ignoring the effect of the Battlefield 4 launch problems. While other EA titles like Madden and FIFA have done well, I suspect that Battlefield 4will drag down EA’s earnings this quarter. Green has a 0% success rate and a -45% average return when recommending Electronic Arts.
In addition, Timothy Green also recommended to buy Best Buy stock on December 26, 2013, again on January 18, 2014, and then again on March 11, 2014. These recommendations helped Green earn a 40% success rate recommending Best Buy, and an average return of -2.3%.
Overall, Timothy Green has a 57% success rate and a 0.4% average return.
Many financial experts made recommendations these past six months, some good and some not so good. But only a select few made it in to this edition of TipRanks’ Hall of Fame/Hall of Shame.
With TipRanks, you know whom to trust.?
