The iPhone 6 won’t even be out for months yet, and already analysts are attempting to measure demand for it. Consumers don’t even know what the handset’s specs will end up being, but apparently that doesn’t matter. They just want Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s next iPhone.
Half of smartphone upgrades want the iPhone 6
In a report dated June 24, 2014, RBC Capital analysts Amit Daryanani and Mark Sue said their recent poll reveals that about half of those who intend to upgrade their smartphone within the next three months are planning to buy an iPhone. They report that about 35% of those say that aren’t planning to buy an iPhone would do it if Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) includes a bigger screen, which means there would be some cannibalization of Android going on with the iPhone 6.
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The analysts also found that 26% of those they polled said they would pay an extra $100 for an iPhone with a 5.5-inch display. Here’s the price breakdown of what the consumers they polled would be willing to pay for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s iPhones (all graphs courtesy RBC Capital Markets):
In addition, 74% of the consumers they asked know that Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is planning to launch a new iPhone this year. The things consumers are most looking for in the iPhone 6 are first, better battery life, and second, a bigger screen size. Here are some of the other things consumers are looking for:
Apple expected to benefit from iPhone 6 upgrade cycle
The RBC Capital team said they believe Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will see a “material upgrade cycle this year” because the company will probably offer two different screen sizes. They expect a 4.7-inch iPhone for $199 on contract and a 5.5-inch iPhone at $299 on contract.
The analysts also said that their checks of Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)’s supply chain suggest that the company is expecting a big upgrade cycle as well. They believe the company is again preparing for a launch in the second half of this year. They say Apple appears to be expecting unit growth of between 15% and 20% year over year. The RBC team notes that this data simply shows demand from Apple’s supply chain rather than end-demand. However, even at the low end, it suggests that Apple expects to sell about 60 million units in the December quarter.