Why Investors Shouldn’t Bet On T-Mobile, Sprint Deal

Why Investors Shouldn’t Bet On T-Mobile, Sprint Deal

The regularity of a rumor doesn’t always speak to its nature. It’s difficult to tell what a company’s executives are thinking if rumors of an acquisition rise and fall every two months or so. Sprint Corporation (NYSE:S) is looking to merge with T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) according to a story printed by Bloomberg earlier today. Given the amount of times that rumor has appeared in recent years it’s difficult to see what’s different this time around.

There certainly has been serious M&A movement in the US wireless business in recent years. both Sprint and T-Mobile are products of deals that changed the landscape of the industry inside the last year. A merger between the two companies is unlikely, however, even as rumors continue to emerge every one in a while.

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Sprint looks to grow by coalescence

According to a report in Bloomberg from earlier this morning, Sprint Corporation (NYSE:S) is planning on making a bid for T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) in the coming months. The report, which was supported by testimony from sources close to the matter, said that the company had already been in contact with financial institutions in order to secure the financing to close the deal.

According to the report the company plans to make an offer for T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) in June or July. The report is supported by the recent actions of Softbank CEO Masayoshi Son. The executive, who has control of about 80% of sprint Corporation (NYSE:S) has been telling everyone who will listen about his plans to take control of T-Mobile, and with it a huge chunk of the US mobile market.

The intentions of Sprint Corporation (NYSE:S) and a secure financing package may not be enough to get the deal through to completion, however. There is a much larger obstacle standing in the way of any deal between Sprint and T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) . It seems that the government of the United States would not approve of a deal between the two companies.

Why Sprint can’t grab T-Mobile

A Baird report on the plausibility of a Sprint Corporation (NYSE:S) merger with T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) says that the likelihood of regulator approval has not changed. Referring to the Bloomberg report as a “once-a-month rumor” analyst William V. Power et al. said that regulators are still unlikely to approve the deal, and current shifts in the market are making that even less likely.

T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) is probably the most interesting company in the US wireless space right now, and the firm is certainly the one pushing changes in the wireless market. The firm is, however, also growing its share of wireless subscribers. Assuming that trend continues in the medium term the combined T-Sprint-Mobile is of an indeterminate size, and could exert more market power than is usually allowed.

Sprint Corporation (NYSE:S) may still try to get its hands on T-Mobile US Inc (NYSE:TMUS) , and investors certainly seem to think there is a chance. Shares in the smaller company rose by more than 7% on Thursday’s market. Baird’s analysis of the likelihood of completion did little to stir their enthusiasm.

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