Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: Bove Takes Shot At Watt

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Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac: Bove Takes Shot At Watt

Fannie Mae

Photo by NCinDC

Dick Bove is talking to his TV, as he sends a research note targeted to CNBC’s Becky Quick. In the research note, Bove discusses Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Assctn Fnni Me (OTCBB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac / Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp (OTCBB:FMCC) reforms, the impact of stimulus reduction on the housing market, drawing correlations between the Fed’s unwinding of stimulus and the surging real estate market. “Becky,” the research note oddly starts, “When you discuss the housing industry you might want to consider the following.” Bove then lists 11 points and wraps them all into a general observation about rising home prices and rates.

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Taking shot at Mel Watt administrator of Fannie Mae

Bove takes a shot at Mel Watt, administrator of Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Assctn Fnni Me (OTCBB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac / Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp (OTCBB:FMCC) and their support 60% of mortgage purchases.  Support for the housing market, “despite the comments of Mel Watt,” is being reduced under the current Fed regime, leading to a toppy looking US real estate market.

As people consider stagnating real estate prices, Bove notes that half the money allocated in the QE3 program was being designated to purchase mortgage backed bonds, thus the Fed tapering, where it reduces such purchases, also reduces the supply of money for housing, reducing demand and keeping a lid on pricing.

Banks having difficulty in mortgage origination: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

Bove notes that mortgage lending isn’t profitable for three of the four largest banks, citing JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM), Citibank and Bank of America Corp (NYSE:BAC), which have lost over $100 million per year making mortgages. But its not just big banks having difficulty. Bove cites a as yet unpublished studies by regional banks that show they are not profitable originating mortgages.The regional banks, however, “won’t publically state” the results of the study findings Bove notes.

Perhaps a large risk in mortage lending is that if a borrower obtains a mortgage and then defaults, under the qualified mortgage rules they can sue the borrower because the bank has an obligation to “know their customer,” a common requirement used to determine retail investing suitability.

In light of a government risk guarantee, tighter capital requirements. leverage ratios

Bove also notes that the capital penalty for a bank making construction loans is unusually high and that “rules related to mortgage securitizations in the private market are simply brutal.”  Bove did not provide analysis of the tougher rules relative to the government risk guarantee backing up many of the largest banks as he discusses “punitive regulations like Basel III” and the related leverage ratios that require a higher percentage of assets required to be placed with the Fed.

Wrapping up the one page investment note, Bove hit on the current Fannie Mae / Federal National Mortgage Assctn Fnni Me (OTCBB:FNMA) and Freddie Mac / Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp (OTCBB:FMCC) debate. “The nation decided to restructure the housing finance system,” he concluded. “It did so and now it is complaining that the system is not working. A look at history will tell you that more houses are built and sold when prices and rates are rising than when these inputs are falling.”

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Mark Melin is an alternative investment practitioner whose specialty is recognizing a trading program’s strategy and mapping it to a market environment and performance driver. He provides analysis of managed futures investment performance and commentary regarding related managed futures market environment. A portfolio and industry consultant, he was an adjunct instructor in managed futures at Northwestern University / Chicago and has written or edited three books, including High Performance Managed Futures (Wiley 2010) and The Chicago Board of Trade’s Handbook of Futures and Options (McGraw-Hill 2008). Mark was director of the managed futures division at Alaron Trading until they were acquired by Peregrine Financial Group in 2009, where he was a registered associated person (National Futures Association NFA ID#: 0348336). Mark has also worked as a Commodity Trading Advisor himself, trading a short volatility options portfolio across the yield curve, and was an independent consultant to various broker dealers and futures exchanges, including OneChicago, the single stock futures exchange, and the Chicago Board of Trade. He is also Editor, Opalesque Futures Intelligence and Editor, Opalesque Futures Strategies. - Contact: Mmelin(at)valuewalk.com
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1 COMMENT

  1. Face it. There are no viable options for housing reform. And since congress is so concerned about the well being of tax payers, I am sure they are aware of the tremendous windfalls which lay ahead for tax payers in the wake of recapitalizing and releasing the GSE’s from conservatorship.

    The government is the largest shareholder of Fannie and Freddie, owning 79% of their common stock. Tax payers will make 600 billion from the government selling the GSE’s equities and collecting taxes on the their future profits.

    The senate banking committee’s plan to turn the housing market into a giant federally backed insurance company increases systemic risk for tax payers to 90% in the event of another crisis.

    Economies of scale allow Fannie and Freddie to guarantee low cost mortgages and the house’s plan to fully privatize the industry will increase the cost of home ownership significantly.

    Congress doesn’t know what they are doing.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PTlEkzkjih0&noredirect=1

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