Twitter Inc (TWTR) Q1 Earnings Preview

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Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) will report its first quarter results on April 29, and the company is expected to report results in line with consensus estimates, according to a research report from Morgan Stanley published on April 24, 2014 by analysts Jordan Monahan, Erhan Soyer-Osman, John Egbert and Stephen Shin. Analysts expect Twitter’s management to focus on recent user experience improvements, Twitter’s mobile ad network efforts and the recent announcement of multiple ad products during the company’s earnings call.

Q1 estimates for Twitter

For the first quarter, consensus estimate for revenue is $241 million, which is an increase of 111% year over year. Morgan Stanley analysts expect revenues of $247 million compared to the guidance of $235 million, which is a year over year increase of 106%.

Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR)’s advertising revenue for the quarter are expected to come in at $224 million, which represents a rise of 123%. Revenues for the U.S., which accounts for 68% of the total, are expected to rise by 98% year over year. For the first quarter, analysts expect licensing revenue of $23 million, an increase of 65% year over year.

Morgan Stanley analysts expect global ad revenue per thousand timeline views of $1.37 — up 86% year over year, on 164 billion total timeline views, up 20% year over year. For the U.S., ad revenue per thousand timeline views is expected to grow 77% year over year to $3.46 on around 44 billion U.S. timeline views (an increase of 11%).

May 5 lock-up expiration approaching

Analysts expect EBITDA of $24 million, up 105% year over year, which is above the consensus estimate and company’s guidance of $19 million and $13 million, respectively. Global MAUs for Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) is expected to come in at 256 million, which is an increase of 25% year over year and 6% quarter over quarter. For the U.S., MAUs are expected at 57 million up 19% year over year and 5% quarter over quarter.

After the earnings report, another important event to watch out will be the May 5 lock-up expiration. Though investors are looking for indications that Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) is “becoming a mainstream platform,” analysts are more concerned with the “availability of MoPub on Twitter’s ad platform, allowing advertisers promotional flexibility both on and off Twitter.”

Morgan Stanley analysts have an Under Weight rating on Twitter Inc (NYSE:TWTR) with a price target of $36.

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About the Author

Aman Jain
Aman is MBA (Finance) with an experience on both Marketing and Finance side. He has worked as a Risk Analyst for AIR Worldwide, and is currently leading VeRa FinServ, a Financial Research firm. Favorite pastimes include watching science fiction movies, reviewing tech gadgets, playing PC games and cricket. - Email him at [email protected]

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