Rise In North American Rail Traffic Points To Core Economic Strength

Total N. American rail traffic came in at 729k carloads last week vs 664k in 2013.  This number is also impressive as it gets us back to near the year end high levels of 2013 which, if one glances at the chart below is not the typical pattern.  We typically do not see levels approaching the previous high levels until much later in the year.  Now, this could be catchup from delayed shipments due to weather over the last few weeks but I’m not convinced of that as we’ve not seen anything like this before.  The data over the next few weeks will answer that question.

Rail Traffic

As I have in the past, I’ll post the oil shipments data:

screenshot_211

While oil shipments continue to rise, they are in no way responsible for the overall strength we are seeing now. YOY oil by rail shipments are up 3k while total traffic was up over 60k. So, yes, it is helping but there is far more going on here.  There was huge gains in both intermodal and metals shipments last week. This strength goes to core economic activity in the US.

Via: valueplays



About the Author

valueplays
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.