Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) is mostly making a splash in the auto industry right now, but most agree that’s going to change over the next several years. In their latest base case analysis, Goldman Sachs analysts have valued the company’s automotive business at $180 a share and its opportunity in stationary storage at $20 a share.
We’ve already covered Goldman’s three disruptive scenarios for Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), so here’s more on their base and downside cases.
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Goldman sees two-year delay in Tesla’s volume target
Analyst Patrick Archambault and his team at Goldman Sachs say their base case suggests that there’s a two-year delay in Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) hitting its 500,000 unit forecast. In their view, Tesla won’t hit that target until 2022. They believe this delay will happen because there are too many unknowns and potential unforeseen delays which will probably happen in launching the massive gigafactory project.
Unlike other analysts, they don’t believe Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) will be able to price the Generation III vehicle as low as it currently believes it can. They’re assuming a $50,000 price tag for the vehicle, which means that demand could take more time than Tesla expects it will.
Even with conservative assumptions in volumes, they estimate that Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA)’s earnings per share could grow to $26 by 2025. However, they say downside exists in their base case volume forecast without additional option value from disrupting other industries.
Even in downside case, Tesla becomes EV market leader
The Goldman team remains positive on Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) even in their downside case, saying that it simply takes longer for the automaker to ramp up growth. However, they’re still modeling for the company to deliver just under 500,000 units by 2025, which would imply a 29% CAGR volume growth from last year.
Unfortunately, however, this case implies that that Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares are significantly overvalued, with an implied share price of $66. That’s the level where the stock was trading less than a year ago.
Shares of Tesla Motors Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) rose 2.5% in trading today.