From a respected reader:
Just did a quick calc based on National Western Life Insurance Company (NASDAQ:NWLI) earnings and thought I would pass onto you as I know you at least used to hold it as a double weight. Let me know if you think there are major holes in this theory:
From the Annual Report:Fund Manager Profile: Zhang Hui Of China’s Southern Asset Management
Historically, the Chinese market has been relatively isolated from international investors, but much is changing there now, making China virtually impossible for the diversified investor to ignore. Earlier this year, CNBC pointed to signs that Chinese regulators may start easing up on their scrutiny of companies after months of clamping down on tech firms. That Read More
“The yield on debt security purchases to fund insurance operations rebounded somewhat to 3.53% in 2013 from 3.37% in 2012 but was still below the 4.18% yield attained in 2011.”
So, investment yields improved, but are still down. Their unrealized gains in securities dropped from $541 million to $146 because of this, so this part of the “hidden value” in the shares went down.
But if rates can get back up to that 4.18%, a quick calc says that would cause annual earnings on their $9 billion investment portfolio to increase $58 million. If 2/3?s of this is credited to annuity holders, it leaves $19.5 million before tax for shareholders. 32% tax from 2013 gives after tax earnings increase of $13 million or $3.57 increase in earnings per share.
If we could get yields back up to 5.5% like they were a few years ago, using the same calc would give an increase in EPS of $9.38, or a 1/3 increase in earnings.
It is still a double-weight here. It is not as cheap as it once was, but it is still cheap. Financial stocks should always be valued on a combination of price-to-book and price-to-expected-earnings.
Why? Because accrual items in the accounting can either be aggressive, fair or conservative. If aggressive, earnings will be overstated, and book value understated. If conservative, earnings will be understated, and book value overstated. For the most part, the two measures balance the squishy accounting.
Now as for the disclosures in the National Western Life Insurance Company (NASDAQ:NWLI) 10K, we need to note that more than 2/3rds of the bonds that they hold are “held to maturity.” That’s unusual, as is their policy where they don’t buy high yield bonds. Held to maturity means the value of the bonds amortizes over time, but price moves don’t affect the accounting, unless default is likely. Thus if interest rates rise, book value will not be affected much, but earnings will rise on a GAAP basis.
National Western Life Insurance Company (NASDAQ:NWLI) has a conservative investing culture, and in the present aggressive environment that is a *good thing.* Adjusting for the held to maturity securities, the adjusted price-to-book is 55%, and my estimate of future earnings is one-ninth of the current price. It is rare to find stocks trading at a significant discount to book and a single-digit P/E.
Full disclosure: long National Western Life Insurance Company (NASDAQ:NWLI)
National Western Life: Conservative Investing Culture Could Pay Off via ValuePlays