This post first appeared on FloatingPath
Recap of this week’s U.S. economic events:
- Total vehicle miles driven were up 2.3% Y/Y in October.
- New orders for durable goods increased 3.5% in November.
- Real disposable personal income increased 0.1% in November.
- New home sales were at an annual rate of 464k in November.
- The FHFA House Price Index increased 0.5% in October.
- Final consumer sentiment in December improved to 82.5.
- The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey stayed in expansion at +13 in December.
- The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index moved above its historical trend in November to +0.60.
- Weekly initial jobless claims slumped back down to 338k.
- Weekly intermodal rail traffic was up 6.4% Y/Y.
- The weekly National Financial Conditions Index remained loose at -0.94.
- Weekly store sales strengthened at a moderate pace heading into Christmas.
- M2 increased 0.05% W/W.
Further U.S. economy reading this week:
Crossroads Capital up 55.8% YTD after 32.5% in 2019 explains how it did it
Crossroads Capital is up 55.8% net for this year through the end of October. The fund released its 2019 annual letter this month after scrapping its previous 2019 letter in March due to the changes brought about by the pandemic. For 2019, the fund was up 32.5% net. Since inception in June 2016, Crossroads Capital Read More
The below plots show the absolute strength of various leading economic indicators as well as whether those indicators are improving or worsening. They are scaled by how many standard deviations they are away from their historical movements and stature. Indicators greater than 2.0 sigma in either direction have been rounded down to 2.0.