This post first appeared on FloatingPath
Recap of this week’s U.S. economic events:
- Total vehicle miles driven were up 2.3% Y/Y in October.
- New orders for durable goods increased 3.5% in November.
- Real disposable personal income increased 0.1% in November.
- New home sales were at an annual rate of 464k in November.
- The FHFA House Price Index increased 0.5% in October.
- Final consumer sentiment in December improved to 82.5.
- The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey stayed in expansion at +13 in December.
- The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index moved above its historical trend in November to +0.60.
- Weekly initial jobless claims slumped back down to 338k.
- Weekly intermodal rail traffic was up 6.4% Y/Y.
- The weekly National Financial Conditions Index remained loose at -0.94.
- Weekly store sales strengthened at a moderate pace heading into Christmas.
- M2 increased 0.05% W/W.
Further U.S. economy reading this week:
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The below plots show the absolute strength of various leading economic indicators as well as whether those indicators are improving or worsening. They are scaled by how many standard deviations they are away from their historical movements and stature. Indicators greater than 2.0 sigma in either direction have been rounded down to 2.0.