Financial Crisis And The Recession: Why Nokia Could be a Value Play

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Since 2008, at the beginning of the financial crisis and the recession,the overall sales picture has been one of volatility and strong promotional activity has been consistently and effectively driving our sales increases. This strategy was designed with 18 to 24 months of effectiveness in mind and we stuck with it for more than 60 months since — as the economy remained weak. Now the strategy has become less effective.

Financial Crisis And The Recession

The decline in traffic is because existing customers are returning slightly less frequently and the decline in the transaction size is because both new and existing customers are purchasing slightly fewer items that’s slightly below our prices. It makes sense when you consider the saturating effect of our intense promotional activity over the past several years.
  • Beware of linear arguments (past doesn’t equal the future)
  • Smaller pain now or bigger pain later
  • “It” doesn’t have to end to stop working
  • Uncertainty = lower valuations
  • ATEA (ATEA in Oslo)
  • 6.5 NOK ($1.03b ) market cap
  • No net debt
  • Sales – 20b Nokia Corporation (NYSE:NOK) (BIT:NOK1V) (HEL:NOK1V) (Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Finland)
  • 60% of sales from hardware sales, 20% software, 20% services
  • Growth 2-3% about market (takes market share)
  • EBITDA (our approximation): products 3.5%; services 7%
  • Good management – set goals, reached them

Financial Crisis And The Recession

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