As I said (and have said repeatedly for the past three years) the job market continues to mend. March’s jobs number, while it “disappointed” some folks will be revised much higher down the road (Jan/Feb were revised a total of 61k higher). Temp employment continues to climb, new auto sales continue to climb and new home construction continues to rise. Put those together and the only direction employment is going is up.
Now we can add the data point that job openings are a 5 yr. high levels. While there is no guarantee these jobs will be filled in a week or a month or two months, what it does tell us is the job market continue to expand on the demand side. Again, that is healthy and leads to more jobs down the road.
On April 9th 2021, Bruce Greenwald, the founding director of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing at Columbia Business School, sat down for a Fireside Chat with Li Lu, the founder and chairman of Himalaya Capital as part of the 13th Columbia China Business Conference. Q1 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Read More
Do yourself a favor, ignore the weekly jobs number and the first monthly number when it is released. They tell you nothing. Focus on the trend (an expanding job market) and the industries that dive employment (temp, auto, housing). They will tell you all you need to know.
In fact, if you only follow one, follow temp help. It leads BLS numbers up in an expansion and turn south before BLS numbers do when entering recession.
The number of job openings in February was 3.9 million, up from January. (See table 1.) This was the highest number of job openings since May 2008. In February, the number of openings rose in health care and social assistance, accommodation and food services, and state and local government. The number of job openings increased in the Midwest region.
The number of job openings in February (not seasonally adjusted) was up over the year for total nonfarm and total private, and was little changed for government. Job openings increased over the year for construction, finance and insurance, accommodation and food services, and state and local government.