According to recent polls PML –N is the favorite in Pakistan’s election, which will be held in mid 2013. The PML-N is led by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The party’s consolidated average national score is 37 percent.
The PPP, led by Asif Ali Zardari and the PTI led by Imran Khan are the runner ups. The results are according to the findings of two nationwide polls on voting intentions, held by IRI and Gallup Pakistan respectively, in the past three months.
Both PPP and PTI scored 16 percent on a national level.
Unfortunately, the national vote banks are not a very good indicator of the winning party because Pakistan follows the Parliamentary system, and the winner takes all majority system.
According to Gallup-PILDAT experts, the prospects for gaining a majority in parliament can be better predicted by splitting the electorate into a minimum of 11 electoral territories.
The survey firm Gallup divided the electoral territories on the basis of a deep and careful analysis of the past 20 year of electoral data. The PML-N is the forerunner in 5 out of 11 electoral territories based on Gallup-PILDAT’s February poll, PTI in one (where it shares with PML-N, the small difference in voting intention being statistically insignificant) PPP in two territories, MQM in one territory, ANP in one territory and JUI-F/MMA in one.
Out of the 11, five territories indicate continuity with the historical trend of voting in that territory, according to Gallup-PILDAT. These five territories include three territories in Punjab and two territories, in Sindh.
However, two territories in Baluchistan and four territories of KP can vary from their historical trend. The popularity of Imran Khan is making an impact on the historical voting trend in one territory of KP
The provincial-based parties are affecting the historical voting trend in the two territories of Baluchistan, and there are further signs of revival of ANP in one part of Baluchistan. This turns out to be a significant change in the trend in the past 20 years.
The five territories, which do not change from the historical trend, are the much more populous states, accounting around 80 percent of the total National Assembly seats. The six other seats, which make up for 20 percent of the National Assembly seat, will be less effective in causing any variance in the historical composition of the National Assembly.
The forecast is based on a nation-wide poll of approximately 9660 voters, chosen through probability sampling, in more than 300 villages and 200 urban localities of Pakistan. The respondent’s include men and women of all ages, income, education and linguistic groups across Pakistan’s four provinces and nearly 100 districts.
