The writing may have been on the wall for a while but now a new research report has come out forecasting that by 2030 China will overtake America as the world’s largest economy with global power shifting toward Asia, reported FOXBusiness News.
The news comes from The National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report, which is conducted every four years, after a presidential election. The leap by Asia over North America and Europe combined is based on gross domestic product growth, population size, military spending, and technological investment.
The report has also forecast that China individually will “probably” have the world’s biggest economy, passing by the U.S. “a few years” before 2030, and noting via FOX, “By 2030, no country – whether the U.S., China, or any other large country – will be a hegemonic power.”
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For China, its economy has averaged 10% real growth in the last three decades, reaching an estimated $11.3 trillion GDP last year. The U.S. compares with a GDP of $15.08 trillion last year, an increase from 2010’s $14.81 trillion.
The group also thinks the economy’s health on a global level will be connected to the strength of the developing world, as opposed to traditional western countries.
Other countries had been singled out in the report for growth, such as Colombia, Indonesia, Nigeria, South Africa and Turkey, with the report; these “will become especially important to the global economy”, but on an opposing note, the economies of Europe, Japan, and Russia will suffer “slow relative declines.”
Additional forecasts in the The Global Trends report include an estimate that the global population by 2030 will reach around 8.3 billion (up from 2012’s 7.1 billion), along with an increased demand for food, water, and energy rising by 35%, 40% and 50% respectively, from an expanding population and middle class.
The report did note that a rising demand for natural resources will be affected by a decaying climate change outlook as the “severity of existing weather patterns will intensify.”
Meanwhile, if you think 2030 may seem too far away for China to overtake the U.S. and it could happen soon, The Economist agrees with you.
In a Dec. 4 story by China Scope Financial, it cited various stats by the publication that has China overtaking the U.S. in 2018.
Take a look:
China has surpassed the US on more than half of 21 different indicators including manufacturing output, exports, and fixed asset investment. By 2014, China will become the world’s biggest importer and have the largest retail sales.
Over the next decade, the annual GDP growth will average 7.75 percent in China and 2.5 percent in the US. Inflation rates will average 4.0 percent in China and 1.5 percent in the US. In addition, the yuan will appreciate 3.0 percent a year in the next ten years. Taking these numbers into account, China will overtake the US in 2018. If China’s real GDP growth slows to an average of only 5.0 percent (leaving other assumptions unchanged), it would surpass the US in 2021.
Which do you think will happen 2018 or 2030?