Since calendar year-end 2004 Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) has strung together an impressive record of consistent EPS growth averaging over 25% per annum. However, shareholders were not adequately rewarded due to excessive overvaluation during the irrational exuberant years 1998-2000. That all changed with the great recession of 2008 which brought share price appropriately down to fair value. Since the beginning of 2009 shareholders has been rewarded in lockstep with earnings growth with both averaging approximately 18%. Add in their growing dividends, and shareholders have earned 19.5% since the beginning of 2009.
Dividend Challenger: Comcast Corp.
This article looks at Comcast Corp (CMCSA), a Dividend Challenger, through the lens of the F.A.S.T. Graphs™ Fundamentals Analyzer Software Tool. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, the reader will be provided the “essential fundamentals at a glance” expressed vividly in pictures. In order to provide you the opportunity to research this company deeper and faster we are providing a link to a live, fully functioning earnings and price correlated set of graphs Found Here. (Tip: Run your mouse over the various lines and watch the graphs come to life).
A Dividend Challenger is defined as a company that has increased its dividend every year for 5-9 straight years. Comcast Corp is a Dividend Challenger that has raised its dividend every year for 5 consecutive years. The complete Dividend Challengers list is compiled courtesy of David Fish. (Open as an excel spreadsheet and look at the tabs on the bottom to find the Dividend Challengers list).
About Comcast Corp: from their website
“Comcast Corporation (Nasdaq: CMCSA, CMCSK) (www.comcast.com) is one of the nation’s leading providers of entertainment, information and communications products and services. Comcast is principally involved in the operation of cable systems through Comcast Cable and in the development, production and distribution of entertainment, news, sports and other content for global audiences through NBCUniversal. Comcast Cable is one of the nation’s largest video, high-speed Internet and phone providers to residential and business customers. Comcast is the majority owner and manager of NBCUniversal, which owns and operates entertainment and news cable networks, the NBC and Telemundo broadcast networks, local television station groups, television production operations, a major motion picture company and theme parks.”
Comcast Corp: A Dividend Challenger with 5 Consecutive Years of Dividend Increases
Learning from the Past – Looking at Earnings Only
Since dividends are paid out of earnings, a clear perspective of a company’s historical earnings growth record is a vital component of a dividend investor’s prudent due diligence process. The following graph plots Comcast Corp’s earnings per share since 1998. A quick glance to the right of the graph shows that Comcast Corp has increased earnings at a compounded rate of 16.9% (see purple circle on graph) per annum.
Earnings Determine Market Price and Dividend Income: The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs™ clearly illustrates the importance of earnings to both price movement and dividend income. The earnings growth rate line or True Worth ™ line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings.
Since dividends are paid out of earnings, and therefore represent additional return on top of what the market capitalizes earnings at, they are depicted by the light blue shaded area and stacked on top of the earnings line. Therefore, a quick visual of these two important components is simultaneously revealed:
1. The additional return that dividend paying stocks provide.
2. The percentage of earnings paid to shareholders as dividends (payout ratio).
The value in this article is through carefully analyzing the earnings and price correlated fundamentally based graphs. Notice that one glance tells you how well the company has performed on an operating basis historically and how the market valued that historical performance. Therefore, the reader is free to discover whether or not current valuations make sense based on historical norms coupled with fundamental values. Instead of opinion, this article is designed to produce facts that can be analyzed to the readers investing benefit.
Performance Table: Capital Appreciation and Dividend Income Comcast Corp
The associated performance results, with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the above discussion regarding the two components of total return: Capital appreciation and dividend income. Dividends are included in the total return calculation and are assumed paid, but not reinvested.
When presented separately like this, the additional rate of return a dividend paying stock produces for shareholders becomes undeniably evident. In addition to the 7.4% capital appreciation (Closing Annualized ROR), long-term shareholders of Comcast Corp would have received an additional $13,069.38 in dividends that increased their total return from 7.4% to 7.8% per annum.
(Note: Since this is a Dividend Challenger it has raised its dividend every year for at least 5-9 years, therefore, negative dividend growth rates shown, if any, will be attributed to special additional dividends paid in excess of the company’s regularly reported dividend rate)
The following graph plots the historically normal PE ratio (the dark blue line) correlated with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as low as it has been since 1998.
A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company’s current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Comcast Corp is 1.36, which is historically low.
Looking to the Future
Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns, and the dividend and its growth rate are a function of two critical determinants:
1. The rate of change (growth rate) of the company’s earnings
2. The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings
Therefore, forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.
Therefore, it logically follows that measuring performance without simultaneously measuring valuation is a job half done. At its current price, which is attractively aligned with its True Worth™ valuation, Comcast Corp represents a potential opportunity to invest in a Dividend Challenger at a reasonable price. The important factor is that Comcast Corp has real assets and cash flow underpinning its stock price. This solid economic foundation offers shareholders the potential for both a strong margin of safety and an opportunity for an increasing dividend income stream and potentially attractive future returns.
The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent commonsense investing decisions.
The consensus of 25 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Comcast Corp long-term earnings growth at 16.8%. Comcast Corp has medium long-term debt at 37% of capital. Comcast Corp is currently trading at a P/E of 17.4, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 20.2. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Comcast Corp’s True Worth valuation would be $68.79 at the end of 2017, which would be a 17.9% annual rate of return from the current price, including assumed dividends.
Earnings Yield Estimates
Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stakeholders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price and dividend income in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.
Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any prospective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Comcast Corp to an equal investment in 10-year Treasury bonds illustrates that Comcast Corp’s expected earnings would be 7.3 times that of the 10-Year T-Bond Interest. (See EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.
This report presents essential “fundamentals at a glance” on Dividend Challenger Comcast Corp, illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it’s imperative that the reader conduct his or her own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not. Follow the link we provided at the beginning of this article to a fully functioning F.A.S.T. Graphs™ on Comcast Corp.
Summary & Conclusions
Comcast has been a very consistent growth stock since 2004. However, as we previously stated, overvaluation kept shareholders from earning the returns that Comcast’s excellent operating achievements deserved. However, valuation became aligned with earnings in late 2008, and the company instituted a dividend in calendar year 2008.
Today the combination of above-average past and expected future growth with an above market and potentially growing yield, position the company for attractive future returns. But perhaps most promising of all is valuation appears in alignment with earnings growth. Therefore, dividend growth investors with an objective of capital appreciation and a rising dividend might want to look further into Comcast. As always, we recommend you conduct your own thorough due diligence.
