Help Wanted Online data Indicates Strong Labor Market

The latest Help Wanted Online data is out and it would seem employers are ramping up their hiring plans. You’ll note the strong correlation between the index and hiring trends. The index paused in the spring on ’11 after a big run from late ’10 and then went stagnant through the summer of ’11.

Help Wanted Online data Indicates Strong Labor Market

 

Now if we look at a chart of the 4 week moving average of initial jobless claims, we see it is essentially the invese of the HWOL reading:

 

 

The HWOL Index leads the direction of claims by a few months. While the initial claims series is very volatile, the relationship is over time is rather clear. So, based on what we are seeing with the acceleration in HWOL ads, we can extrapolate from that another round of hiring is coming that will further boost the recovery




About the Author

valueplays
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.