Tuesday (12/13/11) Morning Pre-Market News: Hussman on U.S. Recession


Every morning the Street of Walls team puts out an update on market levels, today’s top stories, and active M&A deals.

Today’s Top Stories:

  • Adage Capital adds TLB: Adage Capital Partners has disclosed that they beneficially own 6.53% of the outstanding common stock of The Talbots, Inc. (NYSE:TLB)http://bit.ly/sTDQCf
  • S&P Downgrade of EU Imminent: One of the last big events for ‘11 is the outcome of the S&P AAA review, something that could hit any dayhttp://reut.rs/sPJ1Ml
  • Jobs Update from Manpower: ManpowerGroup’s Global Hiring Confidence Index for Q1 2012 Reveals Employers in 30 of 41 Countries and Territories Surveyed Set to Slow Hiring from Fourth Quarter 2011.  “But while the more subdued employer hiring plans continue to reflect current economic challenges and uncertainty, forecasts do remain in positive territory in 31 of 41 countries, with results for the U.S., Japan and India revealing some positive signals. Meanwhile, hiring optimism in the Chinese market declines considerably from this time last year”
  • Hussman on U.S. Recession: John P. Hussman, Ph.D., is out this morning with his weekly commentary on the present market conditions. He is more bearish than he has been in recent months and cautions investors that we are at a large risk of a possible oncoming recession or deep correction http://bit.ly/tRzJth
  • Illegal Immigration Plunges: the amount of people trying to enter the US illegally from Mexico has plunged to the lowest level in 40 yrshttp://on.wsj.com/sbBN7b
  • Hedge Fund Redemptions: according to Reuters, HF redemption requests surged to ~$9B in the month of Oct, nearly 3x as large as the $2.6B pulled out in Sept (largest since Jul ’09).  HF industry AUM fell to $1.66T, its lowest level in nearly 2 yrs (Reuters)
  • Capital Shortfalls at EU Banks: Recently the European Banking Authority (EBA) released its final figures relating to EU banks’ recapitalization needs.   Initial figures were posted by the EBA at the EU summit in October http://bit.ly/vra4iG
  • JPM on Homebuilders: “Structural Demand, Excess Supply, and Homeownership: Near-Term Challenging, Long-Term  Compelling – we maintain our outlook for still fairly muted demand in 2012 and expect only modest improvement; as such, we remain selective among the builders, and continue to highlight OW-rated LEN (Top Pick), TOL, and NVR” (JPM Research)
  • Summer IBD Internships: Summer Internships are coming up in January and February so make sure you are getting prepared forinvestment banking interviews, we have our updated investment banking interview guide available for internships
  • Barclays Top Picks: Over 2,000 stocks covered globally narrowed down to 143 ideas, the two US stocks with the most upside to price tgt: TSO and TCB (both over 100%)

Economic Calendar:

Exclusive: Lee Ainslie Struggled During The Third Quarter As Tech Holdings Fell

activist short selling Investing investLee Ainslie's Maverick Capital had a difficult third quarter, although many hedge funds did. The quarter ended with the S&P 500's worst month since the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Q3 2021 hedge fund letters, conferences and more Maverick fund returns Maverick USA was down 11.6% for the third quarter, bringing its year-to-date return to Read More

  • Tuesday: Advance Retail Sales, JOLTs Job Openings, Business Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision
  • Wednesday: Import Price Index
  • Thursday: PPI, Empire Manf., Philly Fed, Initial Jobless Claims, IP, Current Account Balance
  • Friday: CPI

M&A Watch:

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Disclosure: I do not have a position in any stocks mentioned in this article, do not have a plan to initiate a position within the next 72 hours.
Disclaimer:  The information, opinions, material, and any other content provided in this article is for informational purposes only and is not to be used or considered an offer or solicitation to buy or sell securities, investment products, financial instruments, or to participate in any particular investment strategy. The information, opinions, material, and any other content provided in this article does not constitute as a recommendation or as advice to buy or sell securities, investment products,  financial instruments, or to participate in any particular investment strategy.

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