Temp Employment Breaks Historical Trend

By Todd Sullivan of Value Plays…

Every year Temp Employment peaks in November and then begins a swift slide through the end of the year. Except for this year. The past two weeks the index has rebounded from its Turkey Week low to year high levels and so far has stayed there. The previous 5 years the index has fallen steeply after Turkey Day.

Given what we saw last week in the large decline in 1st time unemployment claims, when we couple that data with this, we very well may be looking at some significant employment gains coming in Q1 2012.

Capture406 624x239 Temp Employment Breaks Historical Trend

Here is the multi year comp another way:
Capture407 624x313 Temp Employment Breaks Historical Trend

Now, it is possible the data collapse happens this week. Even if it does, the stronger than normal year end data bodes well for the beginning of 2012. If it doesn’t collapse like it should, it bodes very very well….



About the Author

valueplays
Todd Sullivan is a Massachusetts-based value investor and a General Partner in Rand Strategic Partners. He looks for investments he believes are selling for a discount to their intrinsic value given their current situation and future prospects. He holds them until that value is realized or the fundamentals change in a way that no longer support his thesis. His blog features his various ideas and commentary and he updates readers on their progress in a timely fashion. His commentary has been seen in the online versions of the Wall St. Journal, New York Times, CNN Money, Business Week, Crain’s NY, Kiplingers and other publications. He has also appeared on Fox Business News & Fox News and is a RealMoney.com contributor. His commentary on Starbucks during 2008 was recently quoted by its Founder Howard Schultz in his recent book “Onward”. In 2011 he was asked to present an investment idea at Bill Ackman’s “Harbor Investment Conference”.