“Forecasts are based on a complicated mixture of geological maps, rules of thumb, expert opinion, physical models, stochastic models, numerical simulations, as well as geodetic, seismic, and paleoseismic data”.
“We believe that the evidence suggests none of the academic models we reexamined warrants a strong investment endorsement. Most models not only cannot beat the unconditional benchmark, but also outright underperform it.”
“Another large earthquake in the San Francisco Bay Area is inevitable, and imminent in geologic time. Probabilities are a distraction. Instead of making forecasts, the USGS could help to improve building codes and to plan the government’s response to the next large earthquake. Bay Area residents should take reasonable precautions, including bracing and bolting their homes as well as securing water heaters, bookcases, and other heavy objects. They should keep first aid supplies, water, and food on hand. They should largely ignore the USGS probability forecast.”