From an investment standpoint, it is similarly evident that investors have adopted a renewed willingness to speculate in recent weeks. I use the word “speculate” because on a valuation basis, we estimate prospective 10-year total nominal …returns for the S&P
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…A wide gulf separates the two most prominent views regarding China’s future. Faced with slowing economic growth, one side says its leaders will deftly navigate a soft landing, while the other claims it will face an implosion similar to those
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…At the bottom of this article is a chart containing GMO’s seven-year forecasts for a variety of asset classes. Comparing these numbers to prior months, one can see a clear trend: as valuations have gone down, GMO now is increasingly
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John Hussman
Capturing a syndrome
Recession evidence is best measured by capturing a syndrome of conditions …that reflects broad deterioration in both real activity and financial indicators. What’s perplexing to me is that the recession concerns we’re seeing are evident
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Performance:…
The International Active Strategy narrowly underperformed the MSCI EAFE index in the fourth quarter; the strategy gained 3.2% and the benchmark rose 3.3%. Negative country selection was somewhat offset by positive stock selection. The strategy beat its benchmark by
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…We believe one of the most compelling investment opportunities over the next few years is likely to be in companies that serve domestic demand within emerging markets. Our case rests on two underlying and interconnected forces – one economic and
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NOTE: I will be releasing European market valuations shortly. I will now be
able to do it on a monthly basis like I do with my US stock market valuation articles (this month it will be super late). Below are …
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By John P. Hussman, Ph.D.…
In recent weeks, investors have abandoned all material concern about the likelihood of oncoming recession, largely because U.S. economic reports – though very tepid on an absolute basis – have come in persistently “better than
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
With the exception of extreme market conditions (see Warning- Examine All Risk Exposures , andExtreme Conditions and Typical Outcomes …), I try not to wave my arms around about near-term market risks, but I think
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Excerpt:
Profit margins dominate the P/E equation above, so that the market is unlikely to come down even to fair value, about 975-1000 on the S&P in our view, and stay there until profit margins decline…. And
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.…
In recent months, we’ve observed a fairly neutral flow of economic data – not strong by any means, but offering a reprieve from the clearly negative momentum that we observed in late-summer. The following chart is
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…NOTE: I will be releasing European market valuations shortly. I will now be able to do it on a monthly basis like I do with my US stock market valuation articles (this month it will be super late). Below are
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The daunting (but not always insuperable) arithmetic of sovereign debt
Rich Mattione
Will Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany have to take a call in the near future from Rome only to find out that Italy has followed Greece in …
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…On the surface, the agreement on the U.S. debt ceiling can be expected to produce a significant relief rally in the financial markets, particularly if one views uncertainty on that front to be the reason for last week’s market weakness.
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…The latest from Jeremy Grantham below:
“You and I, and our government must avoid the impulse to live only for today, plundering, for our own ease and convenience, the precious resources of tomorrow.” Dwight D. Eisenhower, 1961
“ would have
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