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Somebody notify the Bogleheads, they will like this one, or at least Jack will. Yo, Jack, I met you over 15 years ago at a Philadelphia Financial Analysts Society meeting.
How bad are individual investors at investing? Bad, very bad.
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Short run
Intermediate
Long Run
Nominal
Real
Nominal
Real
Nominal
Real
Stocks
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-
+ small
- big
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0
Bonds
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0
0
0
+
0
Cash
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-
+
-
+
-
Gold
0
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+ small
-…
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Eddy Elfenbein wrote a good post recently on the stock market versus inflation expectations. When I read it, I said to myself, “Wait, is the relationship between nominal and real rates really 1:1, or is it more complex?” Though it is not certain, the regressions that I ran indicated that 1:1 was not falsified by
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by Rob Bennett
Five-year certificates of deposit (CDs) were paying returns of 7 percent in the late 1990s. Other super-safe asset classes were also offering generous rates of return. At the top of the bubble, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) and…
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by Rob Bennett
Timing works.
That’s the premise of this new column.
If you cannot buy into that claim, nothing that follows here will make sense to you. If you do buy into that claim, or if you are at…
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By Rob Bennett
The most important factor affecting an investor’s results is his stock allocation. So argues the conventional investing wisdom of today, a wisdom popularized during the Buy-and-Hold Era from a wide array of financial publications.
I don’t subscribe…
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By Rob Bennett
The Investor’s Scenario Surfer is a portfolio allocation calculator that permits investors to compare the results of three rebalancing strategies (80 percent stocks, 50 percent stocks, and 20 percent stocks) with a Valuation-Informed Indexing strategy (changing your…
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By Rob Bennett
Note: Please see Part One of this article for background on the calculator and for a discussion of the first five years of results obtained in the test run.
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Set forth below is a graphic showing my
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by Rob Bennett
Another of the dangers of the Old School retirement calculators is that they employ assumptions that leave little room for error, an odd way of going about business when constructing tools to help people plan retirements! The…
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by Rob Bennett
The Retirement Risk Evaluator is a second generation retirement calculator…. The Risk Evaluator is the first retirement calculator to consider the effect of the starting-point valuation level in identifying the safe withdrawal rate. It is the
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By Rob Bennett
The Retirement Risk Evaluator is a retirement calculator… that reveals to aspiring retirees the safe withdrawal rate (the inflation-adjusted amount that they can take from their investment portfolio to cover each year’s living expenses with virtual certainty
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By Rob Bennett
The Stock-Return Predictor is a stock valuation calculator… that performs a regression analysis of the historical stock-return data to reveal to investors the most likely annualized ten-year return for U.S. stocks starting from any of the various
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