Author: valueplays

The Federal Reserve Gets Ready To Follow Markets

The Federal Reserve Gets Ready To Follow Markets

“Davidson” submits: History often reveals truths which counter the myths of near term thinking. The phrase, “This time is different”, has been debunked so often that it should be a sign of someone speaking without any historical perspective. Little recognized […]

Why The SP&500 in 3yrs+ has the potential to reach $4,500

Why The SP&500 in 3yrs+ has the potential to reach $4,500

Some of Davidson’s best work…. [activintinvesting] “Davidson” submits: One of the most difficult tasks investors face is assessing the mass of detail presented every day, sorting them into buckets and identifying which should be significant factors and which should be […]

Private GDP Continues It’s Strength

Private GDP Continues It’s Strength

GDP came in at 3% today despite two hurricanes……..that means we ought to see Q4 above 3% also as reconstruction begins. It’ll be the first time we’ve seen 3% plus growth for three consecutive quarters since before the financial crisis. […]

Investing In Well Defined Behavior

Investing In Well Defined Behavior

You can’t forecast what you cannot see…or can you? People are more predictable than things. Investing is a process which must look through a fog of unknown using past experience. Many use mathematical trend analysis to forecast the future and […]

Current Indications Are For Higher Equity Markets

Current Indications Are For Higher Equity Markets

“Davidson” submits: Investing increasingly requires a global perspective. I recommend portfolios carry an exposure of 60% Domestic vs. 40% Intl Equities. A significant impact to market pricing of Intl Equities for US investors has always been shifts in the Trade […]

Dollar Rises As Capital Seeks Returns

Dollar Rises As Capital Seeks Returns

“Davidson” submits: [REITs] History shows that the rises in US$ occur with capital seeking better/safer returns. The early 1980s saw Volcker raise rates to quash inflation and capital shifted to the US. The late 1990s saw an Internet Bubble and […]

Why Equity Markets can Still Soar Higher

Why Equity Markets can Still Soar Higher

Ie’ve been saying this here for the last 4 years as markets have continued to climb higher…. Q3 Hedge Fund Letters – Conferences, Calls, And More Fund of funds Business Keeps Dying Baupost Letter Points To Concern Over Risk Parity, […]

Rate Spread Positive for Equities

Rate Spread Positive for Equities

“Davidson” submits: There is one group which believes rising rates are bad for economic activity while another group believes they signal economic strength. Both groups miss the key ingredient of the rate impact on economic activity. The key to understanding […]

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Consensus v Reality

“Davidson” submits: Every day, I scan the news to understand how the consensus/policy makers think. I always find differences of one degree or another. I also get a sense of the trend of thinking, i.e. market psychology, and compare this […]