RyanOConnor

“The power of value investing flies in the face of anything taught in academics. Value is the way stocks are eventually priced. It requires the perspective of patience because the market will eventually gravitate toward value.” – Joel Greenblatt Thesis (full document embedded below): Mongolian Growth Group (“MGG”) is an obscure, underappreciated micro cap franchise with an attractive highly skewed risk/reward equation and substantial downside protection.   Investment Highlights: An investment in MGG around the current price possesses nearly all the qualities we look for in a great long-term investment.  These include: (1) a low valuation (2) a good, incentivized management team backed by a savvy board, (3) near to medium-term operating momentum and (4) multiple internal and external high-probability catalysts which we expect will drive substantial upside. Other attractive attributes of MGG include: A simple business model with an unlevered balance sheet and tangible assets A strong competitive position in a rapidly appreciating niche market Improving economics on an attractive and fast growing asset base A high likelihood of experiencing meaningful improvements in profitability and cash flow Leverage to strong expected growth in the Mongolian Economy Relatively low correlation to the general market Opportunity to deploy capital at high ROIC’s
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The investment analysis below is our sixteenth in our ongoing series of guest posts, and is brought to you by friend of the blog Torin Eastburn, portfolio manager of Monte Sol Capital and second order thinker extraordinaire (see below). Torin founded Monte Sol in January 2012. Prior to founding Monte Sol, he was employed as an equity analyst at CJS Securities, a sell-side brokerage firm that provides small-cap research to institutional investors. He is a CFA charterholder and a 2006 graduate of St. John’s College in Santa Fe, New Mexico. As a long-time shareholder in Radiant, I’ve shared Torin’s belief that there are currently some very compelling investment opportunities in the 3PL industry for quite some time now, and hence wanted to share his wonderful piece with my readers on Radiant and the 3PL space in general. For patient investors willing to look out 3-5 years and perhaps bear some volatility along the way, I think an investment at or around today’s price is likely to do very, very well – and while Radiant is admittedly an economically sensitive business in an increasingly uncertain world, I would remind potential investors that this is a non asset based forwarding network that should grow
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      “Wisdom is learning what to overlook” -       William James “…a fiery growth engine, the kind of business we like to own: one that doesn’t require enormous sums of cash to generate annuity-like cash flow” -     Sardar Biglari Introduction: For part 2 (part 1 can be found here.) of the ongoing review of the high quality assets backing Sandstorm Metals and Energy Ltd (CVE:SND) streaming portfolio, I want to turn our attention to Sandstorm’s flagship Metallurgical Coal assets. I’ve chosen to follow up with the met coal deals primarily because I think that they offer yet another powerful illustration of the fact that SND’s highly attractive streaming assets can be purchased at a price that is by any rational measure completely out of proportion to economic reality, and almost certainly unsustainable assuming pretty much any future scenario where the world doesn’t actually end. So, without further ado let me introduce you to NovaDx and its low cost, long-lived high quality metallurgical coal play(s), the Rosa and Rex No. 1 mines. Like with nearly all of SND’s streaming assets, the potential to increase value above and beyond the initial 2013 reserve/production estimates is substantial (to say the least) and the
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“Any time we see a headline saying commodity X is trading at a 30-year low, we’ll be sure to look closely at the industry for the company or companies still doing okay, which are most likely to lead the way off the bottom…The more dependably cyclical the industry is, as the commodity price trend reverses itself the true value of the company is likely to come out” –   James Vanasek, VII 4-30-08 “Stay away from bad management” “They might say they believe in their ability to build a mine on budget, but nobody ever does that…You need to have capital contingencies so there are buffers at every stage” “We’re the first ones in the base metals and energy space, and we’re hoping to get a multi-billion dollar market capitalization before anybody else shows up.” -  Nolan Watson Introduction: As a follow up series to my original post on Sandstorm, I’ve decided to put together a few posts that dig deeper into some of the underlying properties that undergird Sandstorm’s streaming portfolio. My goal with the following analysis is highlight the quality of these properties, which in turn, should hopefully put an exclamation point on the magnitude of Sandstorm Metals
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“Value investing…as in, buy something when “all is quiet”. When the stock just drifts along…when no one seems to like it…when the company is trying to keep things quiet and insiders are accumulating…when the silence is designed to shake you out of your position. I am learning…you don’t just throw money at an idea whatever the price. You also pay attention to the cycle of silence (accumulation), markup, and promotion. Some stocks scream accumulation when there is an almost unnatural silence for a long time, and unbelievably low volumes. Why buy a stock when it’s expensive and noisy when you can get it cheap and quiet?” –  Mike Burry “A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be.” – Wayne Gretzky Thesis: Sandstorm Metals & Energy (SND) is an obscure, underappreciated, micro-cap franchise with a highly skewed, incredibly favorable risk/reward equation. Investment Highlights: An investment in Sandstorm Metals and Energy at or around the current price possesses nearly all the qualities we look for in a great long-term investment. In particular (1) an unsustainably low valuation (both absolute and relative to peers) (2) a good, fully incentivized management
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By Ryan O’Connor of AboveAverageOdds Some updated thoughts on YNG via Christopher Ecclestone of Hallgarten & Co.Chris is a long time friend of the blog, not to mention one of the savviest mining analyst’s we’ve come across over the years. Below are his latest thoughts on Yukon Nevada Gold. Hallgarten YNG_Oct11 'Get ValueWalk's Daily Edition By Email and Never Miss Our Top Stories'
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