Author: Top Down Charts

Are You A Believer In The Oil Hype?

Are You A Believer In The Oil Hype?

The geopolitical backdrop in the Middle East is fluid to say the least, and this fluidity has helped the black fluid undertake what is looking like a potential upside breakout as the news/noise levels remain high.  But do you believe […]

Global Consumer Sentiment Update

Global Consumer Sentiment Update

The November readings of the Thomson Reuters/Ipsos Consumer Sentiment indexes revealed a picture of solid consumer confidence at a global level.  The global GDP weighted reading was up +0.13pts to 57.76 with Developed Economies up +0.08pts to 54.04 and Emerging […]

Global Equity Valuation Charts

Global Equity Valuation Charts

If it has felt like global equities have done well this year that’s probably because they have.  The MSCI All Countries World Index is up 15.7% in local currency terms YTD (18.4% in USD terms), and is now up about […]

Are HY Spreads “Too Low”?

Are HY Spreads “Too Low”?

In my conversations with clients a common topic of interest is that of US high yield credit spreads.  Indeed, it’s almost the opposite issue of the stockmarket – if you think S&P500 PE ratios are too high, you probably also […]

Key charts on US Margin Debt

Key charts on US Margin Debt

NYSE Margin Debt is an important indicator for US equities as it both reflects sentiment and tracks the amount of leverage and buying power (or lack thereof) in the market. The leverage aspect is important because as leverage rises so […]

Stock Market Sentiment Surges [CHART]

Stock Market Sentiment Surges [CHART]

Funny things can happen when you mix human psychology with greed and constant stimulus. The seemingly straight-line march upward in the S&P500 has triggered a rise in bullish sentiment as a great migration is underway from neutral sentiment to bullish […]

Rising demand for tail risk hedges

Rising demand for tail risk hedges

We hear a lot about the VIX and how volatility is low, but we rarely hear about the VIX’s siblings: the CBOE SKEW Index and the CBOE Implied Correlation index.  This is a shame because they are certainly worth listening and paying […]

The Correct Unemployment Rate?

The Correct Unemployment Rate?

The topic of the unemployment rate has come up a lot recently with regards to debates around full employment, wage growth, inflation, the stage of the business cycle, and of course monetary policy.  These are all critical inputs into the […]

China Reflation?

China Reflation?

Chinese PPI inflation picked up further in September, accelerating to 6.9% (6.3% previous, and consensus).  It forms part of a trend that we have seen in China towards higher generalized inflation.  We’re also seeing PPI inflation accelerating in the less […]