web stats

Tom

avatar I have a degree in managerial economics from Aarhus University - specialising in strategy. Have been employed in various firms private, state and semi-state. Branches have been: Transport (rail and ferrylines), mashine industry, building, energy and university administration.

Web Site: http://www.valuewalk.com


Mærsk Joins With CMA, CGM And MSC To Form P3-Network

June 18, 2013
Maersk logo

Mærsk joins up with CMA CGM and MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company. JyllandsPosten has: EPN.DK Mærsk Cooperation To Be Called P3-Network Quote: The cooperation between Danish Maersk, French CMA CGM and Swiss MSC Mediterranean Shipping Company will be called the P3-network according to a press statement from A.P. Moller – Maersk A/S (OTCMKTS:AMKBY). The combined fleet starts out with 255 containerships with a collective capacity of 2.6 mio. TEU on the major “East-West” markets: Asia-Europe, Asia-North America and North America-Europe. Maersk Line has about 42% of the capacity or 1.1 mio. Box Ships Inc (NYSE:TEU). The coming 20 18.000 Box Ships Inc (NYSE:TEU) triple E ships will join the network. The first, Mærks McKinney Møller, is setting out on her maiden voyage. The three shipping lines emphasises that they will keep their separate and sales-, service- and marketing-functions and is a counter move to the alliances made by competitors (primarily Asian) in the winter 2011-12 to manage capacity. The three shipping lines are the largest in container sailing by far with a market share of about 37% and A.P. Moller – Maersk A/S (OTCMKTS:AMKBY)having over 15% of the world’s container fleet. The network will have to await the authorisation of the authorities and
Read More »


Has China Collapsed? A Look at FX, Copper, Iron, and Steel

June 17, 2013
China

Has China collapsed? Well let us look at the evidence: Evidence For China The exchange rates of different currencies give some clues about China. The graph has been scaled  that bottom is half of the top – only relative variations matter. In this turmoil the USD/EUR relation seems boringly tranquil. Both Australia and Brazil are major raw materials suppliers to China and other countries. Brazil apparently broke a little over a year ago, but was somehow overlooked in the noise around Europe and China. Japan we all know about as having debased their currency big time. The canary in the mine appears to be Australia that has enjoyed very high rate of exchange the last 2-3 years, but has dropped significantly the last month under repeated profit taking that really did nothing to stabilize. Last week’s serious drop was possibly halted, but there are more explanations than certainty: Canberratimes.com.au Quote: “To a large extent the recent weakness in AUD … can be attributed to the pressure being seen on ‘carry trades’ more broadly as the market moves to price an earlier and swifter Fed tapering of their bond purchases,” said John Horner, strategist at Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE:DB) (FRA:DBK) (ETR:DBK).
Read More »


German Sovereign Bonds Lock Stepped

June 12, 2013
German Sovereign Bonds

Neue Zürcher Zeitung reports:  Deutschland bonds kurz vor emission Quote: The Union and a number of the States will address the capital market together for the first time after the parliamentary summer break – starting in Juli. This is reported Tuesday by the news agency Reuters quoting information from insiders.” The preparations to a Union-State bond are in the final stage; but all conditions have not been finalised yet. That is why the financial agency will not go into details”, said a spokesman from the financial agency to the «Neuen Zürcher Zeitung». Reuters has furthermore information indicating an amount of 3 to 5 bio. An introduction of the so-called Germany-Bonds was unclear for a long time as some of the larger states in the union had obstructed. The data for the emission should be announced as soon as the participants are known, according to the Finanzagentur. Comments: There is a dearth of quality German sovereign bonds, but 5 bio EUR is small potatoes compared to around 1,000 bio EUR in sovereign bonds and around the same amount in state bonds. It is a thorny issue as there are major infrastructure investments in Germany which are very much overdue (railroad, high
Read More »


If Financial History is Any Guide the Future of Switzerland Looks Dim

June 10, 2013
Switzerland

Switzerland…. Neue Zürcher Zeitung has: Quote: Switzerland: History shows that financial institutions can survive a prosecution in the USA – but often not for long. In the debate on the ”Lex USA” the Swiss parliament faces uncomfortable compromises in solving the tax dispute. Much talked about was the question if a US prosecution against a Swiss bank really resembles a death sentence, which is the accepted idea. Primarily representatives for the regional banks have publicly doubted this idea. A historical perspective might give some hints. An American law firm has made an analysis of nearly a dozen cases the last thirty years to Switzerland’s financial circles, which seems to confirm the pessimists. According to the analysis all except one of the prosecuted institutes have either been taken over or has totally disappeared – perhaps not immediately, but years later. List of prosecuted: The allegations were among other things fraud, forgery, money laundering, insider trading, bribery and financing of terror: E. F. Hutton. US-Broker.           Prosecuted 1985              Sold 1987 to Shearson Lehman. Drexel Burnham.US-Investment bank               Prosecuted 1989              bankrupt 1990. BCCI. Major international bank.            Prosecuted 1990              multiple charges bankrupt Daiwa Bank.                  Prosecuted 1996              US-business has folded Bankers Trust.
Read More »


LIBOR Probably Moving out of the UK, But Where to is Missing the Point

June 10, 2013
Libor

LIBOR inspection to move to Paris. The Guardian has: Quote: EU regulators published guidelines on Thursday to stop banks rigging Libor and other market benchmarks as an interim measure before a more far-reaching EU law comes in. The draft law, to be published in a few weeks, would propose shifting the supervision of Libor from London to Paris. And: The principles were drawn up with the European Banking Authority provide a framework for administrating, calculating, publishing and submitting quotes for compiling all benchmarks. The guidelines also require benchmark providers to have contingency plans if data for compiling the index dries up. Another new element is that data used to compile a benchmark should represent the underlying asset, such as a commodity or interest rates and based on “observable transactions entered into at arm’s length”. Comment: As the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) were only set up in April 2013 it is obviously a matter of urgency. That is underlined by the fact that these are only “guidelines” that are enforced – there is no law as such – yet. Main thing is probably to get the LIBOR rate out of the British banks hands. The central problem with London
Read More »


RMB/USD: A Look at Various Exchange Rate Scenarios

June 10, 2013
china rmb fx loans

Neue Zürcher Zeitung sums it up quite nicely – Provided – of course – you don’t throw your brain into gear! But then again: Very few do! Quote: The Americans consider the RMB/USD to be undervalued, while Peking blames Washington to have too loose a monetary policy. This makes the RMB/USD weaker and drives speculative capital into new economies like China. Comment: Splendid! They start out agreeing on something! The relationship RMB/USD Is Wrong The relationship RMB/USD is wrong! They even agree upon the direction: RMB/USD is too low. Quote: The Chinese relationship to EU is somewhat tense at the moment because the EU-Commission has slapped anti-dumping customs on Chinese solar panels. As a countermove the Chinese have started investigations against import from European of seamless steel pipes and wine. ”That is what trade-wars are made of”, warns Huo. Regions in recession like Europe tend to act protectionist – something that can get out of hand quickly. Comment: This is just the other way round! The RMB is overvalued in relation to the EUR – the Chinese have to drop prices to get their stuff sold. This naturally also means that European wine and steel pipes are cheap in China – because the
Read More »


North Korea Nuclear Capability: Plutonium and Uranium [ANALYSIS]

May 28, 2013
North Korea

What is going on with North Korea and nuclear weapons? First question is always: Where are the carriers? Well as of May 28th 2013…. There are two Atlantic carriers in port, two in the Indian Ocean, two in the yard (with CVN-71 Theodore Roosevelt taking her own sweet time coming out from a 3½ year major overhaul); but in the Pacific there are four either in port or at sea. A carrier is a very complex machine and has a lot of time in port to prepare; but it strikes me as a bit unusual that there are two in the Pacific apparently at a rather high level of preparedness. Very few would – in view of North Korean belligerence and mental instability – blame the US Navy for suiting up to being able to deal with an assortment of pleasantness. Considering the firepower of a carrier this is apparently not only in the nastier end of the spectrum of discomfort; but also from a volume point of view what one might term a problem. What precisely these carriers are up to has – strangely enough – not been revealed to the general public; but – again – as North
Read More »


Danske Bank Does Attract Attention

May 28, 2013
Danske bank

Even Google hates them: Danske Bank A/S (OTCMKTS:DNSKY) (CPH:DANSKE) + news and the result is. It certainly is rare that an internationally obscure bank – from an even more obscure country the size of Vermont, not even a tax shelter – far from being a tax shelter, gets headlines like this. More locally their bad excuses department is running out of spin! Danske Bank Press Release Back in March the Danske Bank A/S (OTCMKTS:DNSKY) (CPH:DANSKE)’s press department admits: Quote: ”It is correct that an error on the internet between Danske Bank A/S (OTCMKTS:DNSKY) (CPH:DANSKE) and Nationalbanken  did not get our clearing-filer,” says Kenni Leth, Chief Press Officer of Danske Bank, to Epn.dk. Earlier today the Chief Press Officer was not able to tell “Version2”, which bank caused the files not to arrive on time. The delay influenced the transactions of all Danish banks. It was a curious unscheduled break down first ascribed to Nordea Bank AB (STO:NDA-SEK) (by me as well – but I can live with it.) Apparently Nordea Bank AB (STO:NDA-SEK) wouldn’t and told somebody the tale. What is far more interesting to the general is that with respect to the Valuewalk article – again
Read More »


The Bank Inspection And Danske Bank’s Liquidity Management

May 26, 2013
Danske Bank

Danske Bank A/S (ADR) (OTCMKTS:DNSKY) (CPH:DANSKE)’s liquidity has been of some concern to the public. It has been in the form of repeated “computer failures” to the net-banking. Generally happens on the last day of the month. This is probably in part due to the central bank (CB) rules that on that day the total amount that is to be transferred to other banks has to be deposited in full in the CB – before being cleared with payments received from the other banks. The purpose of this rule is actually for the CB to check that the bank is actually liquid – i.e. does not pay with money it hasn’t got. As no bank will admit to fiddling with its liquidity the computer department regularly has to produce some sort of lame excuse – which however is not very helpful to people having to pay their rent and not receiving their pension on time. Very annoying. The Bank Inspections reports are specifically designed to be as bland as possible, but when one is concerned specifically with the management and control of the liquidity of the country’s largest bank it might merit some attention – especially as it is tucked
Read More »


Tax Evasion In The European Union

May 24, 2013
european union flag

It is generally a good idea to listen to what Danish PM Helle Thorning-Schmidt says about the political side in the European Union. Not because she represents a large and powerful economy – which she doesn’t; but because she has spent all her political life in those circles and is well versed in different languages. She knows the European Union inside and out – and can say things representatives of the major countries can’t. Now for a run down of the Danish press: Jyllands-Posten: Uventet fremskridt i EU’s skattejagt POLITIKEN.DK Fakta om skatteaftaler – på vej til en ny verdensorden? Handelsblatt: EU kippt Bankgeheimnis The facts: The European Union The old directive: The European Union-countries decided an interest taxation directive 10 years ago, demanding automatic exchange about the European Union-citizens accounts in other member states. It only applies to the private citizens accounts. Both Luxembourg and Austria got exceptions allowing them to source tax deposits and transfer the money to the country of origin instead of giving information. The new directive: In 2008 the European Union-commission proposed a revised interest taxation directive, demanding automatic transfer of many more types of information about deposits of f.i. investment funds, pension funds and
Read More »


Tax Evaders: How Germany Is Going To Deal With It

May 22, 2013
Tax

Observing what is happening and what is being done, then putting on my tin foiled thinking cap does reveal a pattern – or a plan. It has been suggested that there is about 1.000 bio. EUR of undeclared funds in Europe. How accurate that figure is or how much tax revenue it could eventually yield could be debated. Suffice to say: we are talking funds in the order of magnitude of Germany’s sovereign debt. It is definitely money worth going after partly to reduce taxes which definitely IS a consideration in Europe for everybody, not only the richest. Secondly, recapitalising the banks of Europe is going to take up a fair amount of capital – money that can’t be extracted from the present tax payers – not without destroying consumption and investment. Both are having a hard time as it is. Finally having 1.000 bio. EUR sloshing around on the money market is more than sufficient to destabilise any economy which again is a thing not wanted at all. There are several techniques all being used simultaneously: Outright surrender by the taxpayer The tax evader might turn himself in to the tax authorities and beg for clemency. That may be
Read More »