Gazprom dividend stock analysis with Swen Lorenz from Undervalued Shares. Deep Dive discussing:
- 0:00 Gazprom Stock Analysis
- 2:06 Why am I long Gazprom
- 3:28 Perception gap – reality vs. noise
- 8:48 Dividend pay-out ratio legally 50%
- 10:31 Gazprom Exploration IPO & Spin-offs
- 13:13 Nord Stream 2 & Monopoly EU issues
- 20:02 Europe needs gas
- 22:17 Investment cycle and cash flows
- 27:20 New Management, CFO and Strategy
- 30:08 Low risk and high reward
Q1 hedge fund letters, conference, scoops etc
Gazprom Dividend Stock Analysis With Swen Lorenz - A Stock To Buy
Transcript
Good day fellow investors. Welcome to a new podcast with Swen Lorenz from undervalued shares. Dot com. And this is a very interesting podcast on gets from. And why is Gazprom such a hated or loved stock and spend has written more than one hundred pages of reports over the last few months on Gazprom and that's why I like to talk to him because he is so detailed on the stocks that he analyzes and more often. Overview. INVESTOR He is a detailed investor and therefore I think the combination is perfect. So say hi.
Hi. Good morning to Amsterdam and to everyone. So the topic today is Gazprom I'll quickly start with why I bought Gazprom in the first place a few months ago. Since reports help me on that we are both long Gazprom for full disclosure and then soon we'll go on discussing some very interesting topics related to Gazprom. And that is the perception gap investors have where they might be wrong. The potential IPO of Gazprom subsidiary related to exploration will discuss the Nord Stream 2 implications the positives and the negatives. The gas monopoly the pipelines and then how Gazprom evolves from being. In a mega investment cycle with the power of Siberia Turks 3 and Nord Stream transitioning into a cash harvesting business company like many other Russian government owned companies did which we have already seen with the dividend hike and then also there is something very interesting. The management is changing which is always an interesting transition within such a company. So the new CFO is coming so many many new things with Gazprom and this will help you make the decision whether to hold or sell. Now after the stock is what even 40 percent up from the lows that have been in March I think. I'll start just with a quick overview on why I bought Gazprom in the first place. For me it's pretty simple. I look at the value I look at margin of safety. Can I lose money and if you just look at the power of Siberia. They spent 60 billion on that and the market cap was 50 billion dollars. Year it's practically just paying for the pipeline to China and everything else. That includes the largest natural gas reserves in the world. Other pipelines to Europe through Ukraine etc. a price earnings ratio between 3 and 5 depending on gas gas prices a dividend yield now still at 8 percent which it was. It is 12 percent for those who bought earlier 90 percent ownership of Gazprom. Yes and then 10 percent ownership of Nova tech and much much more. There was always. Concerns that this is Russia. It's a government owned. Company. Russian tycoons cronies will in the you but. It might be all because of the wrong perception because Gazprom has evolved from the company it was. I think. A quarter of the current company 10 years ago when the market cap was five times. Bigger. So I'll let Swen. Discuss a little bit the perception gap. And we'll create a chart of this podcast so fine I'll give you the words to talk more about Gazprom because I know you know a lot of details that our viewers will find interesting.
Yes. So let's start with talking about what I always like to call the perception gap. That's when you have a difference between the reality on one hand and what the. Audience is perceiving. A subject matter to be and in the case of Gazprom. The perception gap quite simply consisted of. If you asked pretty much any investor at the end of last year what they thought of Gazprom the number one concern they always raised immediately was. Oh Putin is going to steal all the money. If you're a shareholder there you never going to see any of these profits. So you know why should I become a shareholder if corrupt company officials are stealing my money. And the reality actually look quite different already at that time and that's what I spend most of my time when I tried to find companies that are perceived in one way which is mostly a negative way because I'm looking for companies that are undervalued that are cheap by. Conventional standards and based on fundamental analysis but where the reality when you check all the details and when you go really deep into the subject matter where the reality is already quite different. Different. And then you also need a good reason.
