From Stanphyl Capital’s September letter to investors
We remain short shares of (and long put options and short call options in) Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), which I consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market—a company so landmine-filled that I think it can implode at any moment regardless of what the broad market does. To reiterate the three core points of our Tesla short position:
1) Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully or sustainably proprietary.
2) Tesla loses a huge amount of money despite relatively light competition but will soon be confronted with massive competition in every aspect of its business.
3) Elon Musk is extremely untrustworthy.
In August Musk posted a completely fictional series of tweets (intended to “burn the shorts”) about a supposed $420/share bid to take Tesla private, and yesterday (September 27th) the SEC sued him for it. We also learned in September that Musk and/or Tesla are the subject of multiple SEC investigations pre-dating that one, and that the DOJ is now involved (perhaps criminally). Additionally, the “420 tweets” triggered an onslaught of lawsuits with a billion-dollar plus liability from investors who bought stock anticipating that buyout. So what did Tesla’s Board do in reaction to this? Absolutely nothing, except to put out a statement offering “Elon” its full support. Are they as crooked as he is, or just incredibly stupid? I have no idea what those dopes are thinking, but it’ll sure be fun watching this play out from the short side, especially as all those investigations are almost certainly preventing Tesla from raising desperately needed capital. Meanwhile, Musk supposedly turned down a sweetheart SEC settlement, perhaps because it only pertained to the “420 tweets” and not the other ongoing investigations, or perhaps because the supposed requirement that he step down for two years left him fearful of what “buried bodies” might be discovered in his absence. We’ll find out soon enough!
More bad news for Tesla in September came with the departure (after just a month on the job!) of the Chief Accounting Officer who was hired to replace the previous CAO who left in March on apparently no notice. Both of those guys left millions of dollars in unvested stock on the table, and one must ask why. Did they assume that stock would wind up worthless (which is, of course, my expected scenario)? Were they asked to do something they were “uncomfortable” doing? Or was Elon Musk just so difficult to work for that it wasn’t worth the millions of dollars they left behind? None of the answers to those questions are favorable to Tesla.
Concurrent with the rapid departure of the CAO was the departure of its head of human resources, yet another exec with a short tenure on the job. And those departures were followed by those of the Vice-President of Worldwide Finance, the Director of Manufacturing Engineering, the Vice President for Global Supply Management, the Senior Vice President of Supply Chain, the Senior Director of Production and Quality and the Director of Logistics For Finished Vehicles. In fact, Tesla’s list of departing executives is so long that Jim Chanos recently said that the only other times he’d seen anything like it was during the waning days of Enron and Valeant. Congratulations, Tesla: you’re a company in great company! Here’s a link to the astounding full list. While a couple of low-level whistleblowers have come forward publicly to report on internal dirty deeds at Tesla, with that many high-level departures I have no doubt that myriad more significant whistleblowers are doing the same; I look forward to hearing them verify many things I already suspect.
Meanwhile, September was a seminal wake-up month for those unaware of the onslaught of luxury EV competition about to be faced by Tesla. First, the new Jaguar I-Pace electric SUV (which had already received fabulous reviews, handily beating Tesla in comparison tests) became widely available in European showrooms (and does so in November in the U.S.) at a price roughly $13,000 cheaper than the Model X and $7000 less than the Model S, gaps that will widen substantially as Tesla’s tax credits phase out. I drove the Jaguar in August and can assure you that no one who drives it will say it isn’t much nicer than any Tesla.
Also in September came the introduction of the Audi e-tron, an all-electric SUV with roughly the same estimated EPA range as the 237-mile base Model X but with a much nicer interior and a price that’s $8200 lower before the Audi’s tax credit advantage. When the Audi arrives in the U.S. in April (it’ll be in Europe this fall) it will receive a tax credit that’s $3750 better than Tesla’s, thus stretching its price advantage to $11,950, and that advantage will grow to $13,825 in July when Tesla’s credit is reduced to just $1875 vs the full $7500 for the Audi.
Also in September came the introduction of the Mercedes EQC. This all-electric SUV will be available in Europe in mid-2019 and in the U.S. in early 2020, with an EPA range nearly that of the base Tesla Model X (an estimated 225 miles vs. 237 for the Tesla) at a cost that’s approximately $25,000 less, as the Mercedes will sticker at around $65,000 and get a full $7500 tax credit while the Model X starts at $83,000 and will get no tax credit when the Mercedes arrives. (As an aside, by 2022 Mercedes will have ten fully electric models, covering nearly all its model lines.)
Although the Model X is larger than the Mercedes and Audi (and has optional third row seating and for $99,500 can take its range up to 295 miles), it had previously been the only luxury electric SUV, leaving buyers with no choice in that category. Now there are alternatives for those who prefer a smaller, easier-to-park vehicle with a much nicer interior and vastly better service facilities, as well as more practical doors than the Tesla’s oft-malfunctioning “falcon wings” (which prevent the ability to mount a rooftop storage unit, something both the Mercedes and Audi can do). I thus expect buyers will flee en masse from the “X” to the nicer and much less expensive Audi and Mercedes, while the Jaguar—more of a crossover than an SUV—will provide terrific competition for both the Model X and the Model S.
Next in luxury EV competition for Tesla will be the Autobahn and Nürburgring-tested Porsche Taycan, which will be available next year with a base price similar to that of the base Model S, and will likely be less expensive with the advantage of the tax credit Tesla will soon lose. Hmmm, Tesla or Porsche… tough choice!
Perhaps the most important ongoing Tesla story (more important even than the SEC and DOJ investigations) is the evaporation of North American Model 3 backlog. Despite Q3 production averaging just 3900 Model 3s per week (far short of the anticipated 5000 per week and Musk’s goal of 6000), Tesla built up substantial Model 3 inventory and had to hold large lot sales and offer free Supercharging (lifetime for the “Performance” model and a year for the lesser models) to get rid of it. Many people argue that “truly massive” Model 3 demand will be unleashed when Tesla offers a shorter-range, lower-priced version in the second half of 2019; here’s why I think that’s wrong…
First, I can’t see any way that a shorter range (approximately 250-mile) base car can be priced at less than $40,000 vs. Tesla’s original promise of $35,000 (a price which has now been scrubbed from Tesla’s web site). After all, the current base car with a 75 kWh battery sells for $50,000 including a mandatory $5000 premium package. If Tesla cut that battery size by 20% (15 kWh) it would only save around $3000, and if it eliminates the premium package it might save itself another $2000. If Tesla then accepted a 10% cut in gross margin, it would have to price the non-premium, shorter-range car at $40,000. Now let’s put that in perspective…
Tesla currently sits with piles of unwanted long-range (310 miles) rear-wheel drive Model 3 inventory at a net customer price of $42,500 ($50,000 minus a $7500 tax credit). If the shorter-range car costs $40,000 and only comes with an $1875 credit beginning in July (and no credit at all beginning January 2020), why would there be door-busting demand for a $38,175 ($40,000 in January 2020) NON-premium package 250-mile car when there’s a glut of 310-mile premium-package cars at $42,500? When financing a car, who wouldn’t pay an extra $2500 for an extra 60 miles of electric range and a much nicer interior? And yet Tesla’s North American backlog of those buyers is gone. The real mass-market Model 3 demand was at $35,000 with a $7500 tax credit—a fictional product that Musk lied about to do massive capital raises in 2016 and 2017.
Meanwhile, the Model 3 continues to reveal itself to be a complete lemon; the latest survey from True Delta ranks it dead last among all available vehicles. And in September British magazine What Car? ranked overall Tesla reliability so low that it’s in “a league” of its own:
And many Tesla customers are apparently paying for their cars and net getting them at all, and then when they do get them they need service which they also can’t get! Check out this devastating new overview from the L.A. Times. And remember, almost nothing can be done in the Model 3 without a multi-step process on the touchscreen—not even changing the windshield-wiper speed, adjusting the air vents or opening the glovebox. Thus, operating a Tesla Model 3 may potentially be as dangerous as texting while driving.
Although Tesla’s Q2 earnings release was horrendous (showing a GAAP loss of $717 million and free cash flow of negative $812 million, forcing a major slash in projected 2018 capex for this manufacturing-intensive alleged “hyper-growth company”), Tesla claimed in that same release that that it will be GAAP profitable in Q3 & Q4 and insinuated that these profits would be sustainable. However, I’ve run numbers every which way I can and the best I can come up with for Q3 is a very artificially boosted (via deferred spending and Q4 sales pulled into Q3) GAAP loss of around $50 million before it all falls apart in Q4 as the North American Model 3 backlog is exhausted and deferred costs are realized, and the authors of this terrific new Seeking Alpha article and this one too are in roughly the same ballpark. And it's clear based on hundreds of social media posts about terrible recent Tesla customer service (thanks to Q2 layoffs designed to artificially juice Q3 profits) that the company is now grossly understaffed, and thus Q3 SG&A will be deceptively low relative to what it must be for a sustainable business, as will be the Model 3’s warranty reserve; i.e. for a true picture, add at least $150 million to whatever Tesla claims for those quarterly expenses. Also, look for a fraudulently inflated cash balance, as (as noted above) social media is rife with stories about Tesla taking full payment for cars and then not delivering them!
Meanwhile Tesla continues to downsize its SolarCity division while a civil securities fraud case accusing Musk of using Tesla to bail out his (and his family’s) interests there proceeds; earlier this year Zero Hedge included an excellent summary of the suit by Twitter user @TeslaCharts in this story about SolarCity’s latest retrenchment, which will undoubtedly help fuel that fraud case, as will this later story describing how Tesla sales people have no idea when the solar tiles or PowerWalls used to justify that merger will ever be available. (Remember that when Musk was promoting that merger he used fake solar tiles on a fake house at a movie studio… How appropriate!)
Finally, Tesla is increasingly besieged by a wide variety of lawsuits for securities fraud, labor discrimination, worker safety, union-busting, sudden acceleration and lemon law violations, and new ones appear on a regular basis.
So here is Tesla’s competition in cars (note: these links are continually updated)…
THE NEW ALL-ELECTRIC JAGUAR IPACE
2019 Jaguar XJ to be reborn as high-tech electric flagship
Jaguar Land Rover will boost spending to $18 billion to fund EVs
The e-tron, Audi’s First All-Electric SUV
Audi planning 20 new electric models by 2025
Mercedes unveils the 2019 EQC Electric SUV
Mercedes to launch 10 all-electric models by 2022
Porsche Cross Turismo to be its second EV
301-Mile 2019 Kia Niro EV To Be Priced Well Under $40,000 In U.S.
2019 Hyundai Kona Electric gets 250-mile range rating in the U.S.
14 new EV models by Hyundai-Kia by 2025
Chevrolet Bolt Offers 238 Miles On A Single Charge For $37,495
GM to introduce 3 more electric cars before 2020, battery cells at <$100/kWh
2018 Nissan Leaf: 150 miles for $30,875, 200+ mile model by late 2018
Nissan Leaf-based SUV coming in 2020
Volvo Polestar 2: 350-mile range, £30,000 starting price
Volvo To Start Selling Electric Trucks In 2019, Some Will Hit The Road This Year
Volkswagen launches ELECTRIC FOR ALL campaign
VW ID electric car 2019 to have over 300 miles range and be a Tesla Model 3 rival
Volkswagen I.D. Crozz 311-Mile Electric CUV For $30,000-ish Before Incentives
BMW iX3 electric crossover goes on sale in 2020
BMW to have 25 electrified models by 2025
Ford plans $11 billion investment, 40 electric vehicles by 2022
Toyota, Mazda, Denso create company to roll out electric cars beginning 2019
Toyota to market over 10 battery EV models in early 2020s
Renault aims to remain EV leader in Europe
Infiniti will go mostly electric by 2021
DS 3 Crossback will give PSA's upscale brand an electric boost
ALL-ELECTRIC MINI COOPER COMING IN 2019
Smart Will Electrify Its Entire Line-up By 2020
SEAT's first electric car is due in 2020
Opel will launch full electric Corsa in 2020
2019 Skoda e-Citigo confirmed as brand's first all-electric model
Skoda planning range of hot all-electric eRS models
MG E-Motion confirms new EV sports car on the way by 2020
Fiat Chrysler bets on electrification for Alfa, Jeep and Maserati
Maserati offering three fully electric cars between 2020 and 2022
Rolls-Royce is preparing electric Phantom for 2022
Citroen preparing EV push with 80 per cent electrified range by 2023
Honda will offer full-EV or hybrid tech on every European model by 2025
All-electric Bentley four-door coupe to use EV tech from Porsche Mission E
Subaru to introduce all-electric vehicles by 2021
Ssangyong e-SIV concept previews 2020 EV
Dyson Moves Ahead on $2.6 Billion Electric Car Plan
Lucid Motors closes $1 billion deal with Saudi Arabia to fund electric car production
Borgward BXi7 Electric SUV Flies Under The Radar
Detroit Electric promises 3 cars in 3 years
SF Motors reveals two electric SUVs for 2019 with 300 miles of range
Two new electric cars from Mahindra in India by 2019; Global Tesla rival e-car soon
Saab asset owner NEVS plans electric car production
EVelozcity Raises $1 billion For EV Startup
Flush with new cash, electric-car company Faraday Future hopes for a fresh start
And in China…
Daimler & BYD launch new DENZA electric vehicle for the Chinese market
BAIC and Daimler to Build $1.9 Billion China Plant
Daimler and Baidu to Enhance Strategic Cooperation in Automated Driving
Volkswagen makes €15bn bet on electric cars in China
Volkswagen Group China’s mega-factory in Foshan will strengthen e-mobility strategy in China
VW signs deals for EVs, autonomous driving in China
Audi to launch 7 new energy vehicle models in China by 2020
GM China raises new-energy vehicle target to 20 models through 2023
Nissan & Dongfeng to invest $9.5 billion in China to boost electric vehicles
Toyota to Introduce 10 New Electrified Vehicles in China by 2020
Infiniti bringing EVs to China’s luxury car market
BMW will develop and produce electric Mini in China
Ford ramps up electric vehicle push in China
BYD Refreshes New Song & Qin Pro PHEVs & BEVs: Range Up To 310 Miles
SAIC to spend $2.2 billion on EVs, connectivity, aftersales services
Honda debuts Everus electric car for China
Changan building large scale NEV factory
Mazda and Changan Auto join hands on electric vehicles
WM Motors/Weltmeister EX5 Electric SUV Launched On The Chinese Car Market
NIOS ES8 Electric Crossover debuts with half the Tesla Model X’s price tag
Geely invests $5 billion into new electric car factory in China
Chery Breaks Ground on $240M EV Factory in China
Chery's second EV plant open in Dezhou
Leapmotor’s electric car to hit the market in 2018
Alibaba-backed Xiaopeng Motors to raise US$2.7 billion this year
GAC Trumpchi to launch range-extended EVs
Guangzhou Auto To Launch Four New Electric Cars By 2020
Chinese carmaker Byton unveils its fully autonomous rival to Tesla's electric sedans
Chinese-backed electric car start-up Byton woos CES with model 40% cheaper than a Tesla
Great Wall Launches New EV Brand (ORA) In China
Singulato iS6 Electric SUV Debuts With 249-Mile Range
Singulato, BAIC partner to promote smart new energy vehicles
FAW (Hongqi) to roll out 15 electric models by 2025
JAC’s Electric Car Has A Range Of 500 Kilometers
ICONIQ to build electric cars in Zhaoqing with total investment of RMB 16 billion
Quianu Motor aims to grab share of US electric vehicle market
All-electric NEVS 9-3 sedans (nee Saab) being built in China
Youxia Motors raises $1.25 billion to start 2019 EV production
Wanxiang Gets China Electric Vehicle Permit to Make Karma Cars
Qoros Auto's new owner plans to be an EV power
JMC (Jianling Motor Corp.) Starts New EV Brand In China
Thunder Power electric cars at the Frankfurt motor show
Continental, Didi sign deal on developing EVs for China
Here’s Tesla’s competition in autonomous driving…
Tesla Ranks Last for Automated Driving
A Tesla self-driving blind spot that few are focusing on
Waymo is first to put fully self-driving cars on US roads without a safety driver
Jaguar and Waymo announce an electric, fully autonomous car
Waymo Expands Chrysler Self-Driving Fleet 100-Fold to 62,000
Uber, Waymo in talks about self-driving partnership
Lyft and Waymo Reach Deal to Collaborate on Self-Driving Cars
Cadillac Super Cruise™ Sets the Standard for Hands-Free Highway Driving
GM ride-hailing fleet would ditch steering wheel, pedals in 2019
SoftBank Vision Fund to Invest $2.25 Billion in GM Cruise
An Overview of Audi Piloted Driving
Updated 2017 Mercedes-Benz S-Class - first ride with autonomous technology
Nvidia to test fleet of robotaxis in 2019 with Daimler, Bosch
NVIDIA and Toyota Collaborate to Accelerate Market Introduction of Autonomous Cars
Volkswagen and NVIDIA to Infuse AI into Future Vehicle Lineup
Continental & NVIDIA Partner to Enable Production of Artificial Intelligence Self-Driving Cars
Bosch and Daimler join forces to market fully automated, driverless taxis by 2020
Intel’s Mobileye will have 2 million cars (VW, BMW & Nissan) on roads building HD maps in 2018
Volkswagen Group and Aurora Innovation Announce Strategic Collaboration On Self-Driving Cars
Toyota, Intel and others form big data group for autonomous tech
Toyota Adds $2.8 Billion to Software Push for Self-Driving Cars
Toyota Invests $500 Million in Uber to Get Self-Driving Cars on the Road
Nissan’s Robo-Taxis Will Hit the Road in March
Nissan and Mobileye to generate, share, and utilize vision data for crowdsourced mapping
Magna joins the BMW Group, Intel and Mobileye platform as an Integrator for AVs
Intel collaborates with Waymo on self-driving compute design
Fiat Chrysler to Join BMW, Intel and Mobileye in Developing Autonomous Driving Platform
Ford-Backed Driverless-Car Startup Argo AI Lures Talent
Ford to invest $4 billion in new self-driving vehicle unit
Lyft, Aptiv (formerly Delphi) partner on driverless ride-hailing at 2018 CES in Vegas
Lyft, Magna in Deal to Develop Hardware, Software for Self-Driving Cars
Hyundai, Aurora to release autonomous cars by 2021
Deutsche Post to Deploy Test Fleet Of Fully Autonomous Delivery Trucks This Year
Byton cooperating with Aurora on autonomous vehicles
ZF plans $14 billion autonomous vehicle push
Magna’s new MAX4 self-driving platform offers autonomy up to Level 4
Bosch Creates a Map That Uses Radar Signals for Automated Driving
Honda Targeting Level 3 Automated Driving By 2020, Level 4 by 2025
Groupe PSA’s safe and intuitive autonomous car tested by the general public
Baidu unveils autonomous driving platform backed by 90 global partners
Baidu plans to mass produce Level 4 self-driving cars with BAIC by 2021
BlackBerry and Baidu Partnering to Accelerate Connected and Autonomous Vehicle Technology
Tencent, Changan Auto Announce Autonomous-Vehicle Joint Venture
JD.com Delivers on Self-Driving Electric Trucks
NAVYA Unveils First Fully Autonomous Taxi
Fujitsu and HERE to partner on advanced mobility services and autonomous driving
Lucid Chooses Mobileye as Partner for Autonomous Vehicle Technology
First Look Inside Zoox’s Autonomous Taxi
Apple Is Focusing on Making an Autonomous Car System
Samsung, Harman gear up for self-driving automobiles
Mitsubishi Electric Develops Automated Mapping For Autonomous Driving
Hitachi demonstrates vehicle with 11-function autonomous driving ECU
DENSO and NEC Collaborate on Automated Driving and Manufacturing
Nuro’s Robot Delivery Vans Are Arriving Before Self-Driving Cars
Here’s Tesla’s competition in car batteries…
LG Chem targets electric car battery sales of $6.3 billion in 2020
LG Chem to build $1.8 bln EV battery plant in China
Samsung SDI Unveils Innovative Battery Products at 2018 Detroit Motor Show
SK Innovation building 20GWh of worldwide battery manufacturing capacity
New Toshiba EV Battery Allows 320km Charge in 6 Minutes
Daimler building eight battery factories
Panasonic Opens New Automotive Lithium-Ion Battery Factory in Dalian, China
Panasonic forms battery partnership with Toyota
CATL’s Chinese battery factory will be bigger than Tesla’s Gigafactory
CATL to set up battery cell manufacturing in Germany
BYD to quadruple car battery output with lithium site plants
GM inaugurates battery assembly plant in Shanghai
Honda Partners on General Motors' Next Gen Battery Development
VW Wants to One-Up Tesla With a Next-Generation Battery
Energy Absolute Plots Asian Project Rivaling Musk's Gigafactory
France's Saft plans production of next-gen lithium ion batteries from 2020
ABB teams up with Northvolt on Europe's biggest battery plant
Chinese Battery Maker to Open Factory Next to Swedish EV Plant
Sokon aims to be global provider of battery, electric motor, electric control systems
BMW Group invests 200 million euros in Battery Cell Competence Centre
BMW Brilliance Automotive opens battery factory in Shenyang
BMW announces partnership with solid-state battery company
Toyota promises auto battery 'game-changer'
VW increase stake in solid-state batteries with $100M investment
Hyundai Motor developing solid-state EV batteries
Continental eyes investment in solid-state batteries
Wanxiang is playing to win, even if it takes generations
UK provides millions to help build more electric vehicle batteries
Rimac is going to mass produce batteries and electric motors for OEMs
Elon Musk Has A New Battery Rival (Romeo Power) Packed With His Ex-Employees
Bracing for EV shift, NGK Spark Plug ignites all solid-state battery quest
ProLogium Technology Will Produce First Next Generation Lithium Ceramic Battery For EVs
Here’s Tesla’s competition in storage batteries…
Panasonic
LG
BYD
AES + Siemens (Fluence)
NEC
Hitachi Chemical
ABB
Saft
EnerSys
SOLARWATT
Sharp
Kreisel
Leclanche
Lockheed Martin
UniEnergy Technologies
ENGIE
Blue Planet
Clean Energy Storage Inc.
Swell Energy
Younicos
Powervault
Schmid
Ecoult
And here’s Tesla’s competition in charging networks…
EVgo Installing First 350 kW Ultra Fast Public Charging Station In The US
Tritium’s First 350-kW DC Fast Chargers Coming To U.S.
Porsche plans network of 500 fast chargers for U.S.
BMW, Daimler, Ford, VW, Audi & Porsche form IONITY European 350kw Charging Network
E.ON to have 10,000 150KW TO 350KW EV charging points across Europe by 2020
Enel kicks off the E-VIA FLEX-E project for the installation of European ultra-fast charging stations
Europe’s Allego “Ultra E” ultra-fast charging network now operational
Allego & Fortum Launch MEGA-E High Power Charging network for Europe’s Metropolitan areas
Chargepoint Europe Gets $82 million in new funding from Daimler
ChargePoint - InstaVolt partnership; more than 200 UK rapid charge systems
UK's Podpoint installing 150kW EV rapid chargers this year; 350kW by 2020
UK National Grid plans 350kW EV charge point network
ChargePoint Express Plus Debuts: Offers Industry High 400 kW DC Fast Charging
Fastned building 150kw-350kw chargers in Europe
ABB powers e-mobility with launch of first 150-350 kW high power charger
Shell buys European electric vehicle charging pioneer NewMotion
BP buys UK's largest car charging firm Chargemaster
Total planning EV charging points at its French stations
Yet despite all that deep-pocketed competition, perhaps you want to buy shares of Tesla because you believe in its management team. Really???
Elon Musk, June 2009: “Tesla will cross over into profitability next month”
Tesla SEC Correspondence Shows A Pattern Of Inaccurate, Incomplete & Misleading Disclosures
Tesla: Check Your Full Self-Driving Snake Oil Expiration Date
As Musk Hyped and Happy-Talked Investors, Tesla Kept Quiet About a Year-Long SEC Probe
The Truth Is Catching Up With Tesla
With Misleading Messages And Customer NDAs, Tesla Performs Stealth Recall
Who You Gonna Believe? Elon Musk's Words Or Your Own Lying Eyes?
How Tesla and Elon Musk Exaggerated Safety Claims About Autopilot and Cars
When Is Enough Enough With Elon Musk?
Musk Talked Merger With SolarCity CEO Before Tesla Stock Sale
Tesla Continues To Mislead Consumers
Tesla Misses The Point With Fortune Autopilot Story
Tesla Timeline Shows Musk's Morality Is Highly Convenient
Tesla Scares Customers With Worthless NDAs, The Daily Kanban Talks To Lawyers
Tesla: Contrary To The Official Story, Elon Musk Is Selling To Keep Cash
Tesla: O, What A Tangled Web We Weave When First We Practice To Deceive
I Put 20 Refundable Deposits On The Tesla Model 3
Tesla: A Failure To Communicate
Elon Musk Appears To Have Misled Investors On Tesla's Most Recent Conference Call
Understanding Tesla’s Potemkin Swap Station
Tesla's Amazing Powerwall Reservations
So in summary, Tesla is losing a massive amount of money even before it faces a huge onslaught of competition (and things will only get worse once it does), while its market cap tops that of Ford and nearly equals GM’s despite a $2.8 billion+ annualized net loss selling approximately 200,000 cars while Ford and GM make billions of dollars selling 6.6 million and 9 million cars respectively. Thus this cash-burning Musk vanity project is worth vastly less than its approximately $55 billion fully-diluted enterprise value and—thanks to its roughly $31 billion in debt and purchase obligations—may eventually be worth “zero.”
