Weekly Charts – Lots Of Them

Updated on

By Teddy

Us retail sales ex autos, gas came in at 0.5% M/M, beating expectations of 0.4%. Headline y/y numbers bounced, but have been range bound.

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Amazon’s prime day provided a positive tailwind, as non-store growth re-accelerated, accounting for 41% of the aggregate gain.clost

Building materials and garden equipment was also strong, coming in at 8.3% y/y.

clostHowever, food services and drinking places remain weak at 3.4% y/y, down from 10% in Jan 2015.
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Housing starts came in at 1.155, missing expectations of 1.225. clost

Industrial production beat estimates, with half of the % gain from shale drilling.clost

And auto incentives have declined materially with the pace of car sales. clost

On the corporate front, buybacks relative to market caps have slowed across indices.

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As US buybacks continue to slow. clost

Reducing overall liquidity, as corporates have been the primary bidder.
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We are beginning to see some weakness in small caps.

clostWith breadth deteriorating across the NYSE.

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H/t @stockboardasset

Which we can also see on the NYSE summation index from @andyscycles.

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Some view it as equity rotation, as earnings growth overseas outpaces the US. clostSome see a bubble.

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That may be turning based on the Hindenburg Omen. clost

As well as BMI’s study. clost

Europe still looks cheap on a relative basis.

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But EPS revisions may continue to be a headwind.

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Largely due to the strength of the Euro, which may reverse in the short term. Mario?

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This will likely weigh on crude.

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But a near term bounce to shake shorts may be in order first.

clostWhich is also in line with @freixasmarti’s rendering.

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Though longer term it seems the bulls may have trouble on the demand side.

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That will continue to persist into 2018. [5Y swap mkt indicating large reduction in credit impulse]clost

H/t @Jp_OB

This would seemingly hamper global growth, as China has been the primary driver of credit creation.

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The forward curve does not seem to be pricing this in at 30 BPS of flattening. clost

However, the probabilities may favor the curve already inverting.

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So is it time to get long bonds?

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#chartflow

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