NYSE Margin Debt Update

The latest NYSE margin debt data was just released (for June – yes it gets released with a 1-month lag… which by the way reduces its merit as a timing signal due to the lags). The data show overall margin debt close to all time highs. Note: it has technically rolled over after peaking in April, and to be fair it can be a warning sign when it rolls over from a high.

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But for me the stronger or more important signal is the acceleration in margin debt. As the second chart shows, you want to watch for periods of extreme acceleration in margin debt as a sign of a market top. Further, you want to see it surge and then rollover and go all the way to deceleration or decline as a bear market warning sign. For now though the NYSE margin debt is looking fairly benign from a market timing signals perspective.

NYSE margin debt is close to all time highs, and has technically rolled over after peaking in April.

Margin debt acceleration has topped out at benign levels, no real signal either way here just yet.

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Article by Callum Thomas, Top Down Charts