How The Market Perceives Conor McGregor Vs Floyd Mayweather

Conor “The Notorious” McGregor did it. He succeeded at selling the idea that he has a chance to beat Floyd “Money” Mayweather. I looked at the odds this morning and Floyd pays 1.15x and Conor 5x your money. Basically a $100 bet on Floyd will give $115 (15% gain) and the same bet on Conor will pay you $500 (500% gain).

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Yes obviously McGregor is a massive underdog. But the odds give McGregor a better chance of beating Mayweather than ranked professional boxers. In Mayweather’s past fights, a bet on him yielded less than 5% (-1.05x your money). The opposite fighter usually paid at least 8x your money. This would imply that Conor should pay upward of 8 times your money. But the market is inefficient. Mood, perception and the buzz surrounding Conor seems to be moving the line here. Basically McGregor managed to convince the public that he has a chance. Even after he was knocked out by his sparring partner. And that plays directly in the hands of Mayweather and the promoters. The promoters needed to desperately sell the idea that Conor has a chance to win so they can sells millions of PPVs. Everybody is in on it, even Conor, except of course the viewers that will be forking the money to watch this circus. A circus. That’s what it is. This will not be a real fight. It’s absolute circus.

Verdict:

Well I believe the press conferences offered more in terms on entertainment than the fight will. If this is a real classic boxing match, Floyd wins. If this turns into some crazy show, anything can happen. Imagine if Conor starts the fight in a karate stance? Will that mess will Floyd’s head? If Conor is in deep trouble, will he use his kicks or take him down or something. Imagine if McGregor kicks him in the head and knocks him out cold. Or takes him down hard. Does a fighter get his payday if he’s disqualified? Maybe the fight will be fixed and you will a second fight to suck more money out of fans. Verdict: I highly doubt you will get your money’s worth. It will not live to the hype. Winners: Floyd, Conor even if he loses, the promoters. Losers: People forking $100.

Maybe it will look like this: