Friday’s eye-opening decline in the strongest gainers for 2017 has many people wondering:
Is it time for new market leadership?
Last Week Recap
The big news last week was the Comey hearing and speculation about what it meant. Markets have not been reacting to the political news, but it still commands media attention. CNBC provided non-stop coverage.
The punditry did spend time on my question from last week – bonds versus stocks – but seemed happy to turn to the action on Friday instead.
The Story in One Chart
I always start my personal review of the week by looking at this great chart from Doug Short via Jill Mislinski. The loss for the week was only 0.3%, but Friday’s trading added some excitement to a slow, summer Friday afternoon.
Doug has a special knack for pulling together all the relevant information. His charts save more than a thousand words! Read the entire post for several more charts providing long-term perspective, including the size and frequency of drawdowns.
Note to Readers
Thanks to all of those who offered suggestions for changes in WTWA and encouragement about my main mission. There are many great ideas that I am trying to implement and many loyal readers who like things as they are. Here are the changes so far:
- Eliminating much of the material repeated every week and placing it in a static source. I need to find a good way to encourage new readers to check out the background.
- Reducing the calendar to summarize my own views on what is most important.
- Moving the Silver Bullet to a standalone series. I am trying to make it more visible, not diminishing the importance. I realize that this is a bit less convenient for current leaders, but I hope they will help me out in establishing this.
- Moving the trading ideas to the Stock Exchange series. Once again, please read and give this a chance. WTWA readers must be aware of the different time frame.
- Changing the emphasis of the weekly theme to what I see as more important, with secondary consideration to media attention.
Each week I break down events into good and bad. For our purposes, “good” has two components. The news must be market friendly and better than expectations. I avoid using my personal preferences in evaluating news – and you should, too!
The economic news last week was mixed, but the market reaction was positive.
- Household balance sheets show new records in wealth in nominal, real, and per capita terms. (Scott Grannis).
- Rail traffic improved in May. (Calculated Risk). (See also Steven Hansen at GEI).
- Earnings announcements are the most positive since 2012. (FactSet). (Brian Gilmartin).
- ISM services registered 56.9. The strong value beat expectations. There was also strength in employment, business activity, and new orders. (ISM).
- Commercial real estate is looking stronger according to the Dodge Momentum Index. This is claimed to be a leading indicator. See Calculated Risk for analysis and charts.
- Little progress in the debt ceiling debate.
- Factory orders dropped 0.2%, the first decline in five months. (Reuters).
- Wholesale sales declined to levels usually associated with recessions. (Steven Hansen at GEI). The lower inventories are also likely to affect Q2GDP.
The Week Ahead
We would all like to know the direction of the market in advance. Good luck with that! Second best is planning what to look for and how to react.
It is a fairly light calendar. The FOMC meeting will be most important for markets – especially the press conference. Watch for hints about future policy and a resulting change in the slope of the yield curve. There will be some FedSpeak in the days after the meeting.
I am also interested in building permits
Briefing.com has a good U.S. economic calendar for the week. Here are the main U.S. releases.
Next Week’s Theme
The Fed decision will be a popular topic, but the week will begin with a deeper look at Friday’s trading. People will be asking:
Is there a change in market leadership?
Here some of the early explanations:
The FANG stocks were dramatically over-valued. A shift was long overdue. Anything might have started it.
The Amazon crash captured the attention of the CNBC crew, where they cited the rapid decline in a major name. The focus was mostly on Amazon, but partly on retail strength.
The rapid selling is evidence of inherent danger in the current market. Flash Crash redux.
Overall, the change in the major indexes was not that great. The differential effects happened too quickly to be called a rotation, but could it be the start of one?
Whatever the reason, it was not just a flash crash in AMZN.
As usual, I’ll have more in my Final Thought. I have an unprovable, but plausible hypothesis. It fits the evidence and timing from the chart above.
We follow some regular featured sources and the best other quant news from the week.
I have a rule for my investment programs. Think first about your risk. Only then should you consider possible rewards. I monitor many quantitative reports and highlight the best methods in this weekly update.
The Indicator Snapshot
The Featured Sources:
Bob Dieli: Business cycle analysis via the “C Score.
RecessionAlert: Strong quantitative indicators for both economic and market analysis.
Georg Vrba: Business cycle indicator and market timing tools.
Brian Gilmartin: All things earnings, for the overall market as well as many individual companies.
Doug Short: Regular updating of an array of indicators. Great charts and analysis.
Wisconsin economist Menzie Chinn (Econbrowser) Has his own helpful variant of the Big Four chart we often show here. He sees slowing growth, but no sign of a recession.
Insight for Investors
Investors should have a long time horizon. They can often exploit trading volatility!
Best of the Week
If I had to pick a single most important source for investors to read this week it would be David Van Knapp’s comprehensive and thoughtful response to investors who buy good companies without regard to price.
He does a nice introduction and valuation. He explains that valuation affects probability, not certainty. And he uses some great examples. He explains that markets are not efficient, despite what you learn in school. He illustrates with another good example.
Especially devastating is his refutation of the facile and self-serving argument that has gained recent popularity: large cap stocks are never mispriced because markets are so efficient. He writes:
…the idea that large-cap stocks are never mispriced ignores the data. It is clear that even the largest companies go through periods of mispricing. The following table shows the differences between the 52-week highs and lows for the biggest members of the S&P 500 right after the Brexit vote last June.
My summary cannot do justice to this fine work. Read it carefully. Read it twice!
Brian Gilmartin reviews the pluses and minuses for GE, including both fundamental and technical analysis. He notes the importance of the upcoming earnings report, and the attractions of a dramatic alternative for those with a growth portfolio.
Chuck Carnevale explains that attractive valuation based upon earnings is just a starting point – a