- Not all features of smart beta strategies that add value for investors can be replicated with simple factor tilts.
- Whereas factor-replicated portfolios can match the short-run returns of smart beta strategies, they have higher turnover, much larger trading costs, smaller capacity, more frequent and prolonged benchmark underperformance, larger drawdowns, higher residual risk, and lower long-run returns.
- Implementation matters! Really smart smart beta strategies should be designed to optimally capture factor return premiums and be able to deliver them to investors after trading costs.
This article is the second in a series we are publishing in 2017. The first article of the series showed that the factor returns realized by mutual fund managers can be very different from the returns investors might expect based on the funds’ factor loadings. We find that the performance of the market, value, and momentum factors in live portfolios is sharply lower than their performance in theoretical model portfolios. If the results of long–short factor paper portfolios used in regression analysis to judge manager skill are not replicable with live assets, bad decisions may be made. This may be contributing to many of the new live factor strategies faring as poorly as they are, even though the periods over which their performance is being measured are too short to draw any meaningful conclusions.
In this article, we challenge the common view that smart beta strategies and factor tilts are equivalent. Initially, the term “smart beta” referred to strategies that broke the link between the price of a stock and its weight in the portfolio or index. Capitalization weighting does not do that—neither does a portfolio that applies factor tilts to a cap-weighted starting portfolio.
Some have suggested that certain smart beta strategies are essentially factor tilt strategies in disguise, which can be replicated with factor tilts applied to a cap-weighted market portfolio. We test this assertion by replicating three first-generation smart beta strategies—Fundamental Index™, equal weight, and minimum variance—with factor tilts. Creating factor-replicated portfolios that match the factor loadings of these smart beta strategies is easy, but the factor-replicated portfolios are poor substitutes for their smart beta counterparts: performance is poor, turnover is high, and capacity is terrible. Why? The simple answer is that construction details matter in achieving both lower trading costs and higher performance.
In the third article of the series, we will examine whether expected factor returns based on relative valuation can forecast mutual fund performance better than existing models, whose typical inputs are fees, turnover, and past returns. The fourth paper in our series will take a deep dive into momentum to explore why live results for momentum strategies are so starkly inferior to the results of theoretical model portfolios and to ask how momentum can be preserved as a value-added strategy.
A walk along Canal Street in New York City on a typical day winds around numerous vendors selling replica Rolexes at bargain prices. The replicas’ quality varies from vendor to vendor, but for the most part they all look very much like the real deal and might even keep time reasonably well. But a buyer of a replica Rolex accepts certain risks avoided when buying an original: the watch is not guaranteed, may break easily, and may even contain toxic chemicals used to simulate gold that can turn skin green. To state the obvious: all Rolexes are watches, but not all watches are Rolexes.
We assert the same logic holds for smart beta investment strategies. All smart beta strategies have factor tilts (useful in that factors can educate investors about strategy tendencies and return drivers), and factor tilt strategies can reasonably replicate the short-term performance of smart beta strategies. We show, however, that simple factor tilts based on the factor construction popularized in the academic literature are a poor way to capture the long-term performance of smart beta strategies. Smart beta strategies—as originally defined by Towers Watson—generally deliver superior performance, both before and after trading costs, and have more favorable portfolio characteristics, such as turnover, trading costs, and capacity. Although all smart beta strategies have factor tilts, not all factor tilts are smart beta strategies.
Smart Beta Return Performance
Towers Watson coined the term “smart beta” around 2009, inspired by the Fundamental Index and other strategies, to encompass an array of strategies that break the link between the price of a stock and its weight in the portfolio. Towers Watson found many examples, including among them equal weight, Fundamental Index, minimum variance, low volatility, EDHEC’s Risk-Efficient strategy, and TOBAM’s Maximum Diversification strategy. A unifying attribute of these strategies is that they exploit a simple fact: market capitalization–weighted strategies weight every stock that is currently overvalued (hence, destined to underperform in the future) in the portfolio above its fair-value weight, and underweight every undervalued stock.
Advocates of cap-weighted indexing correctly observe we cannot know which stock is overvalued and which is undervalued because we cannot know fair value, and accordingly we cannot know fair-value weight. They argue this seeming Achilles’ heel of capitalization weighting does not present a problem. But if we can break the link between the price of a stock and its portfolio weight, we will no longer assuredly overweight overvalued stocks and underweight undervalued stocks. An over- or undervalued stock is roughly equally as likely to be above as below its fair-value weight, so the errors cancel! This has been referred to as rebalancing alpha and is a shared attribute of all generation-one smart beta strategies.
Ample evidence exists that these early smart beta approaches add value. We compare three: Fundamental Index, which weights the top 1,000 US stocks by the fundamental economic footprint of the 1,000 largest businesses in the macroeconomy; equal weight, which equally weights the top 1,000 US stocks (selected by market capitalization); and minimum variance, which optimizes (using the top 1,000 US stocks by market cap, subject to constraints) to create the lowest-possible-risk portfolio.1
A comparison of the performance characteristics and factor model return attributions of these strategies is provided in Table 1. Before trading costs, all three add 130?200 basis points (bps) of total return a year above the market capitalization?weighted top 1,000 stocks, and all three have sizable Sharpe ratios and information ratios over the past half-century.
Pundits have argued that the Fundamental Index is nothing more than a value strategy, but in live experience the Fundamental Index outperformed value over a period (2006 through February 2017) when value was savaged: on an annualized basis, the Fundamental Index delivered 9.29%, better than the 7.42% of the Russell 1000 Value Index, the 8.16% earned by the S&P 500 Index, and even the 8.99% earned by the Russell 1000 Growth Index.2 In other words, the Fundamental Index beat Russell Growth in a decade when growth beat value! So much for the early cynics.
Similarly, the equal-weight strategy is said to be a predominantly small-cap value strategy, and minimum variance a predominantly small-cap, low-beta, and value strategy. These three unique strategies, each with a value bias, won across three broad geographies (the US, international, and emerging markets) in a period when value lost (Jan 2006–Feb 2017)—again, so much for the critics.
Today the definition of smart beta has become quite broad. Smart beta now seems