2015 Review Value Investing Stock Market Curreen Capital
Published on Jan 18, 2016
Why you should review last year's mistakes... and what we can learn from mine.
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KS today I want to review 2015 look at stocks that I lost money on it and see
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what I can learn from them this is one of those things that I hate doing but
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I'm really happy I did it after it's done and then I recommend it to you this
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was the suggestion of one of your guys thanks for the comment you suggested
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that I look at my losers from 2015 and see what I can learn good news is there
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are several losers from 2015 we have four we had teachers in opec
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side effects and take notice and I and that is out of a portfolio seven stocks
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during the year so above 50% loss rate we still won anyway so what can I learn
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from them I don't go through what I wrote and when I thought on this but
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there were a few broad things that I realized that I hadn't realized before I
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did this review so first off let some of my stocks get too large in my portfolio
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and he said they were too large to the part of the portfolio early in the year
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so February and March they were both 30% cash each of the portfolio and i was
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simply too big
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given downside ratio they had at the time I know
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I'm in the future to when I let it happen in this case because both of them
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had short-term taxable gains and they both have momentum stocks are going up
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and that's something I can improve I can notice that when I have a short-term
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taxable gain I'm hesitant to take it I need to push through that sometimes
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sometimes you really do need to take that taxable gain what's particularly
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painful about this experience is that after veterans dropped in March on march
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twentieth of 2015 her grow in this investment journal saying hey just
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dropped turns out it was to be given his price do I have anything else in the
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portfolio where vulnerable to this and yes I should fail he site and I should
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take it down to 10% of the portfolio and then march 23rd Monday he say goes up I
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had the chance to sell it all day long
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even better price than I saw that I said that I should sell it I did not think I
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did not listen to what I have written down when I ignored what I wrote my
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investment journal I let my gut override the best thinking that I can do
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sell it for the next couple weeks afterwards in the press corrected itself
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to a point where I was like well now I like below in the upside downside though
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making now is something that became result over but the reason why I had let
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it happen
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of this short-term gains momentum I hadn't even thought about until I did
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this review so as useful as I can tell you is that my downside estimates of
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earnings for 2015 were too high on several companies so take notice and I
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and veterans are all kinda come in with earnings that are probably on both know
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that are probably below my downside estimates for earnings for this year and
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part of that is fine as I don't really care about 2,000 between earnings or
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even 2016 earnings I care about you know where should the company being 34 years
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at and what is that worth sometimes you get the deal because the earnings are
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coming down for the next two years but my downside estimates should not be too
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optimistic if they're too optimistic something wrong in the process I am an
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optimist a happy guy and I can't take that into my downside us to middle
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school my decision-making process and I hadn't even realized that this is
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something I was blind to until a review 2015 so reviewing 2013 has to realize
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this short-term taxable gain stuff and this excessive optimism on the down side
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which I would have seen before and it gives me a chance to kick myself one
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more time for not thinking too much discipline so I encourage you to review
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your 2015 not too late remember 2015 was a week here you're more likely to find
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mistakes I bought this and I shouldn't have or I didn't sell it and I should
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have then you're you're not going to find stuff like oh I should have held
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onto that longer that some things that you'll see in a bull market of a mistake
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some of the outcome when you're looking for his to improve your process so that
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take a look
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the goal is to improve your process and that to keep yourself and make yourself
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feel like
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that's not going to help you do better in 2016 and the 2016 we've got some
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lower stock prices I hope that you are excited I hope that you're finding
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something I hope that you're able to make some decisions here good luck
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everybody thanks so much
