This month’s newsletter is short. We’ve written far more about Donald Trump than we care to (and probably far more than you have wanted to read). The markets are up modestly. The economic and political landscapes across the globe remain relatively benign by historical standards. Sure, a surprise upset by Marine Le Pen in the French elections could roil the markets. And there is still the will-they-or-won’t-they Brexit issue. But, the point is, there is no big issue that deserves our attention right now.

United Technologies

United Technologies

We have time to talk a bit about one of the companies we own in our dividend portfolio: United Technologies (UTX). We bought United Technologies last summer during the latter part of the oil-and-gas-led capital spending downturn. The company is a conglomerate that operates four different businesses: (1) a Pratt & Whitney jet engine business; (2) an aerospace systems business; (3) a climate control and security systems business, including the Carrier brand; and (4) an elevator business. Their Otis elevator business is our focus in this newsletter.

The Otis business accounts for a little under a quarter of the company’s profits. But it’s one of the company’s best businesses. The elevator and escalator industry is an oligopoly with the top five firms controlling about 75% of the market. Profit margins have been rising over the years, and companies now earn approximately a 10% margin on new installations. The real money, however, is on maintenance, with profit margins of 25% to 35%. This creates a virtuous cycle, since the more elevators the company installs the more money it will earn in the long run via service contracts.

There are high barriers to entry in the industry. Since a substantial portion of industry profits are earned from service contracts, a newcomer needs to spend substantial amounts of capital building out a base of installed machines before it has a network dense enough to earn a profit. The proof of how high the barriers to entry are is in how long the companies have been in business. Otis was founded in 1853. Competitors Kone was founded in 1910, and Schindler, in 1874. Check out the Wikipedia list of former elevator companies. You will find a list of about a dozen brands that have been bought by larger companies. Not a bankruptcy among them.

While the industry is stable in terms of competition, it does have a cyclical nature. The new installation business ebbs and flows in line with construction spending as one would expect. This cyclicality is tempered by the regularity of the maintenance portion.

The elevator business is also a growth one. Otis looks set to continue to benefit from long-term population trends. The world’s population is becoming increasingly urbanized. According to the United Nations, 54% of the world’s population lived in urban areas in 2014. By 2050, that number is set to rise to 66%. The trend toward urbanization is most pronounced when looking at “mega-cities” or cities with over 10M people. (Otis might call them prime elevator markets.) In 1990, there were just 10 mega-cities. By 2014, the number had jumped to 24. By 2030, the number is projected to rise to 41.

We look forward to owning United Technologies for many years.

About Our Portfolios

The Capital Appreciation Fund and the Dividend Fund are innovative, investor friendly alternative to traditional actively managed mutual funds called a Spoke Fund ®. We can also customize portfolios for clients seeking less risk and volatility by including allocations to other asset classes such as bonds and real estate.

Spoke Funds are significantly less expensive and more transparent than a large majority of mutual funds. Both portfolios are managed for the long term using value investing principles. Fees for both portfolios are 1.25% of assets annually. That figure includes both our management fee and all trading costs. We try to minimize turnover and taxes as well in both funds.

Investor accounts are held in your name (we never take investor money) at FOLIOfn or Interactive Brokers*.

For more information visit our website.

*Some older accounts may be custodied at TradePMR.


Disclaimer

Historical results are not indicative of future performance. Positive returns are not guaranteed. Individual results will vary depending on market conditions and investing may cause capital loss.

The performance data presented prior to 2011:

  •  Represents a composite of all discretionary equity investments in accounts that have been open for at least one year. Any accounts open for less than one year are excluded from the composite performance shown. From time to time clients have made special requests that SIM hold securities in their account that are not included in SIMs recommended equity portfolio, those investments are excluded from the composite results shown.
  • Performance is calculated using a holding period return formula.
  • Reflect the deduction of a management fee of 1% of assets per year.
  • Reflect the reinvestment of capital gains and dividends.

Performance data presented for 2011 and after:

  • Represents the performance of the model portfolio that client accounts are linked too.
  • Reflect the deduction of management fees of 1% of assets per year.
  • Reflect the reinvestment of capital gains and dividends.

The S&P 500, used for comparison purposes may have a significantly different volatility than the portfolios used for the presentation of SIM’s composite returns.

The publication of this performance data is in no way a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services.

Article by Ben Strubel, Strubel Investment Management