China’s Property Bubble may have fizzled for good for the time being if data from Tier-3 cities confirms that the tightening measures introduced to cool the market in Tier-1and Tier-2 cities spark a countrywide property market slowdown, that’s according to Deutsche Bank’s latest special report in the China Property Bubble Series.
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China’s Property Bubble Has Been Popped
Last year property price growth hit a high of 25% year-on-year in Tier 2 and Tier 1 cities across China during the third quarter. Land prices reported even more explosive growth. The land auction premium in Tier-1and Tier-2 cities hit nearly 60% year-on-year in the third quarter. Since spiking in Q3, the Chinese authorities have introduced measures to cool the property market but the majority of these measures were only introduced by local governments in Tier-1 and Tier-2 cities, Tier-3 cities remain unaffected. According to Deutsche’s chief economist Zhiwei Zhang, Ph.D. and Li Zeng, Ph.D., who authored the China property special report, trying to establish whether or not China’s property bubble will now spill over into Tier-3 cities is critical from a macro perspective. Tier-3 cities accounted for 70% of land sales (in volume terms) and 46% of property investment in 2016. It is, therefore, sensible to wonder whether tier-3 cities will be affected by those tightening measures as well.
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