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Derivatives Trader Who Predicted Trump Election Says Important New Cycle Has Begun

The mainstream political narrative, framing issues from the perspective of conservative / liberal, is no longer relevant. In a December 2016 letter to investors, Artemis Capital Management notes a significant trend shift that many are missing. Investors who frame issues from this traditional right / left political perspective are going to misread market opportunity much as was done during Brexit. It is from this standpoint the derivatives expert challenges conventional wisdom while providing forward market guidance. Spoiler alert: volatility traders will benefit from what happens next, but it will be volatility of a certain type that is among the probability paths.

Artemis Capital
Artemis Capital

Artemis Capital – It is about globalization

It is not uncommon for derivatives professionals, particularly those trading volatility, to live in their own bubble of a reality. They tend to be statistically-driven and base conclusions on multiple patterns of past behavior. Occurrences that repeat have a significance and this technical mindset often looks for correlation factors.

Christopher Cole, a registered commodity pool operator and managing partner at Artemis Capital Management LP, is one such individual. He discusses an analysis framework used today that also explains the election of Donald Trump.

The basis of how Cole framed the Trump analysis is unique and was equally applied to Brexit. Investment analysts who attempt to understand the economic ramifications of global populism must begin with core performance drivers. Start by challenging staid convention: This isn’t a traditional Democrat / Republican divide. This is the French revolution and Hillary Clinton’s campaign pledge appeared to be “Let them eat cake.” This is the unwashed masses of people against an oligarchy. But most important it is sending a signal on globalization, which frames investment opportunity.

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