Hours are left before either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton win the US election. The winner will be handed the keys to the White House and the most powerful and influential country in the world in January. Americans are making a tough choice– a choice they could later regret.
The first states to reveal US election results are Indiana and Kentucky at 6 p.m. Eastern. The last one is Alaska – at 1 a.m. Eastern. It’s been a memorable presidential campaign this year: Hillary’s email scandal, Trump’s “Russian puppet” speculation, name-calling of all kinds, and World War 3 warnings…
Trump vs. Clinton: naming the new president
What are the most recent polls indicating about the US election results? In short, Democratic candidate Clinton still has a slight edge over Trump, but not all polls agree with that.
The BBC’s latest poll says that both Clinton and Trump have a 45% chance of winning the 2016 presidential election. Note: Clinton had been considered to be the front-runner with about a 65% chance of winning just a few months ago. So we have to hand it to Trump (and the FBI’s rather loud investigation into Clinton’s email scandal) for shortening the distance considerably.
Real Clear Politics counted all of the most recent polls, and here’s what it found. Clinton still has a lead by 2 points, according to the average figure. But we can see a huge difference in some of the polls regarding the US election results. On Sunday, NBC News and The Wall Street Journal released poll results showing that Clinton had 44% of the vote against Trump’s 40%.
While it’s a far cry from the BBC’s poll, let’s dig deeper into the US elections.
Which polls are the closest?
Which polls are actually closest to the truth? There’s no telling of that until we see the actual voting results. But Clinton is not leading in all of the recent polls. On Sunday, a tracking poll by IBD/TIPP put Trump in the lead by 1 point. Also on Sunday, a more shocking tracking poll by USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times indicated that Trump has a more than 5-point lead over Clinton.
That same day, an ABC News and Washington Post tracking poll revealed a huge lead by Clinton. According to the poll, the Democrat is 5 points ahead of her rival (48% vs. 43%). The poll also provided additional valuable info pertaining to the US elections. It turns out that Clinton’s supporters chose the Democrat because they actually support her. In Trump’s case, it’s the opposite. Trump voters are more likely to support the Republican candidate because they oppose Clinton.
Participants of the poll also said they support Clinton for being more qualified and better-tempered. They also believe that Trump is less empathetic to the everyday struggles of Americans.
Female domination or male power? Whites or non-whites?
All of the US election surveys have the same pattern. That certainly helps to figure out what is actually going on. The polls reveal that Trump’s typical voter is an older white man. Clinton’s support base, meanwhile, is primarily comprised of non-whites (African-Americans and Latinos) and women.
So it all comes down to who actually turns up at polling stations to cast their votes. The majority of non-whites and women support Clinton. The majority of whites and men, meanwhile, are voting in favor of Trump. It looks like America will once again be divided by gender and race in the US election results. So which gender and which race will prevail in the United States in 2016?
US election: Clinton and Trump grab their last chance
On his last-chance day to attract more voters, Trump visited five states on Monday, including Michigan. All of the five states are key states to keep an eye on in the US election results.
Clinton hasn’t been wasting her time either. The Democrat paid a visit to the same five states on Sunday and Monday. But Clinton’s rallies are far more attractive in the eyes of younger people because they include big celebrities. For her final push around the states, Clinton took Beyoncé, Jay Z, LeBron James, Cher, and President Barack Obama and first lady Michelle Obama to cheer the crowds.
America’s current leaders have been supporting their fellow Democrat, Clinton, this year. Obama, his wife, Vice President Joe Biden and even her former rival Bernie Sanders all have campaigned for Hillary.
Key states in 2016
There are a few key states to keep an eye on in the US election results. Take Michigan, for example. From the beginning of this presidential race, Michigan had been considered a winning state for Clinton. But last week’s polls about the US election indicated that Clinton’s 10-something lead has been reduced to only 4 points now. Other key states include:
- Florida
- Pennsylvania
- Virginia
- Ohio
- North Carolina
If Trump takes the lead in 3 of these 5 states, it means he has equal chances of winning the election. If Trump wins 4 or even 5 of these states, it means he practically has the keys to the White House in his hands.
The same goes for Clinton. If she takes the lead in 3 of these 5 states, she is more likely to win. If she wins 4 or even 5 of the states, she’s definitely leading this year’s US election and will be the new resident.
What does it mean?
These 5 states are so crucial because they are all located in the Eastern timezone of the United States. The reason is because their polling stations are the first ones to close on Tuesday. They are also the first ones to start counting their US election results.
So these 5 states are merely indicators of who’s leading the presidential election before other states’ polling places close. The winner of the 2016 US presidential election goes home with the keys to the White House if he/she wins the most electoral votes. So it’s not about winning the popular vote.
These 5 states collectively have a lot of electoral votes, which means they are fair early indicators of the winner. It would also be a good idea to keep an eye on the following 8 states in the US election results:
- Michigan
- Arizona
- Wisconsin
- New Hampshire
- Colorado
- Maine
- Iowa
- Nevada
Trump and Clinton are going head to head in all of these 8 states. Follow updates on the 2016 US presidential election results on ValueWalk.
