This crazy election is finally coming to a close, and once all the ballots are cast and counted, the question everyone will be asking is: What does President Hillary Clinton/Donald Trump mean for our wallets? To answer that question, WalletHub prepared a pair of reports examining the potential outcomes: What If Trump Wins? and What If Hillary Wins?

FBI Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump
Image source: Wikimedia Commons
Hillary Clinton vs. Donald Trump

What If Trump Wins?

Article by John S Kiernan, WalletHub

Have you thought about how the world could change if the likely frigid morning of January 20 echoes with these words: “I Donald J. Trump do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States…”?

To some, the prospect is invigorating. To others, it’s terrifying. To WalletHub, however, the question is at least somewhat quantifiable. We crunched the numbers on what’s likely in store for everything from GDP growth and the S&P 500 to tax rates and healthcare coverage should Mr. Trump pull out a Brexit-esque victory on Election Day. Below, you can check out what we found, along with commentary from experts in each category. You can also learn what the other side of the coin has in store for us from our corresponding report on a Hillary Clinton win.

Area Of Interest Projected Impact
Personal Taxes 33% top Individual Tax Rates for income over $112,500
Corporate Taxes Discouraging inversions through taxation in order to grow the economy
Stock Market Political predecessors registered a 3.28% increase of the market (adjusted for inflation) (Divided Congress)
Unemployment Points to energy as a source for new jobs in the future
Education Pledged to invest $20 billion of federal dollars into a voucher program for students to attend school of their choice and repeal common core
Social Security Has pledged to save Social Security without cuts
Health Care Repeal and replace the ACA
Minimum Wage Increase the minimum wage to $10/h but let states set the minimum wage as appropriate for them

 

Personal Taxes

Annual Income Trump’s Proposed Tax Rate Current Rate
$415,050+ 33% 39.6%
$413,350 to $415,049.99 33% 35%
$190,150 to $413,349.99 33% 33%
$112,500 to $190,149.99 33% 28%
$91,150 to $112,499.99 25% 28%
$37,650 to $91,149.99 25% 25%
$37,500 to $37,649.99 25% 15%
$9,275 to $37,449.99 12% 15%
$0 to $9,274.99 12% 10%

 

  • Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,276B
  • Projected Impact on Tax Revenue for 2017 (Trump): -$341B

Other Notable Tax Policy Changes

Issue Trump’s Stance Trump’s Comments
Estate Tax Repeal it
Tax capital gains held until death and valued over $10 million, except for small businesses and family farms.
Prohibit contributions of appreciated assets into a private charity established by the decedent or decedent’s relatives.
“The estate tax has been a disaster; it’s double taxation.”
Caregiver Benefits Full deductibility of average-cost child care expenses.
Above-the-line deduction for children under age 13 that will be capped at state average for age of child, and for eldercare for a dependent.
Exclusion will not be available to taxpayers with total income over $500,000 (married-joint or $250,000 (single).
“My plan will also help reduce the cost of child care by allowing parents to fully deduct the average cost of child care spending from their taxes.”
Itemized Deductions Increase the standard deduction to $30,000 for joint filers and $15,000 for single filers
Cap itemized deductions at $200,000 for married-joint filers or $100,000 for single filers
No change for mortgage interest or charitable contributions
Retirement Accounts No stated position No stated position
Alternative Minimum Tax Eliminate it “[We should] get rid of the death tax, as well as the horrific alternative minimum tax.”

 

Corporate Taxes

Issue Trump’s Stance
Top Corporate Tax Rate 15%
Top Pass-Through Rate 15% (new business tax within the personal tax code)
Taxation of future foreign earnings Immediate worldwide taxation; repeal of deferral
Mandatory Tax, Untaxed Accumulated Foreign Earnings 10%
Inversions Discourage inversions to grow the economy
Offshoring 35% tariff on goods imported into the United States by U.S. companies that have moved overseas
Cost Recovery 100% expensing
Business Interest Expense “Reasonable cap” on deductibility
R&D Expenses No stated position
Derivatives No stated position
Other Business Provisions Reducing or eliminating corporate loopholes that cater to special interests, as well as deductions made unnecessary or redundant by the new lower tax on corporations

 

Stock Market

Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors

  • Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 3.28% annual rate with a Republican president and a divided Congress.
  • The S&P 500 has grown at a 16.36% annual rate with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.

Unemployment

Initiative More Info
Relax Federal Regulations Pro-growth tax plan
Modern regulatory framework
America-first trade policy
Energy independence plan
Penny plan
Make the U.S. the World’s Leading Energy Producer Use energy to create jobs in the future.
Make American energy dominance a strategic economic and foreign policy goal of the United States.
Unleash America’s $50 trillion in untapped oil, natural gas and “clean coal” reserves.

 

Historical Performance of His Republican Predecessors

  • Historically, the unemployment has increased by an average of 0.21 percentage points with a Republican president and divided Congress.
  • The unemployment rate has increased by an average of 0.22 percentage point with a Republican president and a Republican Congress.

Education

Issue Trump’s Position Trump’s Comments
School Voucher Program Pledged to invest $20 billion in a voucher program to support school choice “As president, I will establish the national goal of providing school choice to every American child living in poverty. If we can put a man on the moon, dig out the Panama Canal and win two world wars, then I have no doubt that we as a nation can provide school choice to every disadvantaged child in America.”
Charter Schools Supports them “Competition is why I’m very much in favor of school choice. Let schools compete for kids. I guarantee that if you forced schools to get better or close because parents didn’t want to enroll their kids there, they would get better.”
Teachers’ Unions Criticizes them “Our public schools have grown up in a competition-free zone, surrounded by a very high union wall. Why aren’t we shocked at the results?”
Common Core Promises to get rid of it “I have been consistent in my opposition to Common Core. Get rid of Common Core.”
Debt-Free College Doesn’t support it.
(Wants to pressure institutions with large endowments to spend more on students, thus reducing tuition costs.)
“Instead these universities use the money to pay their administrators, to put donors’ names on their buildings, or just store the money, keep it and invest it. But they should be using the money on students, for tuition, for student life and for student housing. That’s what it’s supposed to be for.”

 

Social Security

Issue Trump’s Stance Trump’s Comments
Retirement Age Opposed to raising it “It’s my intention to leave Social Security the way it is. Not increase the age and to leave it as is.”
Benefit Cuts Pledges to save Social Security without cuts. “People signed up for Social Security; it’s kind of like a pledge. The people who have their Social Security, with me, are going to keep their Social Security.”
Benefit Increases No position No position
Cost-Of-Living Adjustments No changes
Payroll Tax Against raising it “The average worker today pays 31.5% of their wages to income and payroll taxes.”
Privatization No position “Privatization would be good for all of us. Directing Social Security funds into personal accounts invested in real assets would swell national savings, pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into jobs and the economy”.

 

Health Care

Issue Trump’s Stance
Health Insurance Require price transparency from health care providers
Allow for the sale of health insurance across state lines
Allow for tax-deductible health insurance premiums
Expand use of health savings accounts
Medicare Voiced support for allowing Medicare to negotiate drug and biologic prices
Medicaid Block grants for Medicaid to the states
Affordable Care Act Repeal and replace the ACA

 

Minimum Wage

Issue Current Minimum Wage Trump’s Recommended Minimum Wage Raise’s Effect on Taxpayers
Minimum Wage $7.25 $10, but believes states should set the minimum wage as appropriate for them Approximately 500,000 jobs would be lost
  • The following states have a minimum wage of $7.50 or higher: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
  • California, New York and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws to raise their minimum wage to $15 per hour in the coming years.

What If Hillary Wins?

Article by John S Kiernan, WalletHub

Have you thought about how the world could change if the likely frigid morning of January 20 echoes with these words: “I Hillary Rodham Clinton do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States…”?

To some, the prospect is invigorating. To others, it’s terrifying. To WalletHub, however, the question is at least somewhat quantifiable. We crunched the numbers on what’s likely in store for everything from GDP growth and the S&P 500 to tax rates and healthcare coverage should Sec. Clinton become the second President Clinton on Election Day. Below, you can check out what we found, along with commentary from experts in each category. You can also learn what the other side of the coin has in store for us from our corresponding report on a Trump victory. Happy voting!

Area Of Interest Projected Impact
Personal Taxes Higher tax rate (43.6%) for people who make $5M+
Corporate Taxes Close various loopholes and regulate high-frequency trading
Stock Market Historically, market has increased by an average of 13.84% with a Divided Congress
Unemployment Spend $125B on job-creation initiatives
Education Debt-free college for families who earn less than $125K per year; Common Core remains
Social Security No Higher retirement age and payroll tax cap ($250K); no privatized Social Security;
Health Care ACA improvements; Immigrants allowed to participate
Minimum Wage Higher federal minimum ($12/hr.)

 

Personal Taxes

Annual Income Clinton’s Proposed Tax Rate Current Rate
$5,000,000+ 43.6% 39.6%
$415,050 to $4,999,999.99 39.6% 39.6%
$413,350 to $415,049.99 35.0% 35.0%
$190,150 to $413,349.99 33.0% 33.0%
$91,150 to $190,149.99 28.0% 28.0%
$37,650 to $91,149.99 25.0% 25.0%
$9,275 to $37,649.99 15.0% 15.0%
$0 to $9,274.99 10.0% 10.0%

 

  • Current Annual Tax Revenue: $3,276B
  • Projected Impact on Tax Revenue for 2017 (Clinton): $30.4B

Other Notable Tax Policy Changes

Issue Clinton’s Stance Clinton’s Comments
Estate Tax Permanently reduce the tax threshold for estates to $3.5 million ($7 million for married couples) with no adjustment for future inflation
Increase the top rate to 45% percent
Establish $1 million lifetime gift tax exemption
“Then there’s the Estate Tax, which Trump wants to eliminate altogether. If you believe that he’s as wealthy as he says, that alone would save the Trump family $4 billion. It would do nothing for 99.8 percent of Americans. So they’d get a $4 billion tax cut, and 99.8 percent of Americans get nothing.”
Caregiver Benefits Cap child care costs at 10% of income
Create tax credit for caregivers of elderly or disabled relatives
“[Raising children] is the most important job that any of us can do, and we are making it really expensive and very difficult. If we don’t support families, we don’t support making our country or any community as strong as it can and should be.”
Itemized Deductions Cap all itemized deductions at a tax value of 28%, with exception for charitable contributions “As a result of loopholes and the ‘private tax system’ of lawyers and accountants who enable complex strategies to shelter and lower the bill on income for the most fortunate, some of the wealthiest taxpayers continue to pay low effective rates on their income.”
Retirement Accounts Close the “Romney loophole” on individual retirement accounts “[Billions of dollars] are drained from retirement accounts because of high fees and conflicts of interest in the investment management industry.”
Alternative Minimum Tax Retain the AMT “I said that I’m in favor of doing something about the AMT. How we do it and how we put the package together, everybody knows, is extremely complicated. … I want to get to a fair and progressive tax system. The AMT has to be part of what we try to change when I’m president.”

 

Corporate Taxes

Issue Clinton’s Stance
Top Corporate Tax Rate No specifics on rates
Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Top Pass-Through Rate No specifics on rates
Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Taxation of future foreign earnings No specifics on rates
Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Mandatory Tax, Untaxed Accumulated Foreign Earnings No specifics on rates
Unspecified business tax reform to raise $275B in five years for infrastructure spending. “Reform our tax code to reward businesses that invest in workers and production here in America, rather than overseas”;
Inversions Impose an “exit tax” on corporations who leave the country or transfer (virtual) assets to another country
Offshoring Reclaim tax breaks from corporations that ship jobs overseas and use proceeds to invest in America. Provide tax incentives to encourage investment in the hardest-hit manufacturing communities
Cost Recovery No Stated Position
Business interest expense No Stated Position
R&D Expenses Use revenue from closed loopholes to help drive growth and strengthen R&D
Derivatives Require annual “mark to market” for contracts annually;
Other Business Provisions Eliminate tax incentives for fossil fuels. End the “Bermuda reinsurance loophole”. Tax high-frequency trading

 

Stock Market

Historical Performance of Her Democratic Predecessors

  • Historically, the S&P 500 has grown at a 13.84% annual rate with a Democratic president and a divided Congress.
  • The S&P 500 has grown at a 17.03% annual rate with a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.

Unemployment

Initiative Planned Investment More Info
Youth Employment $20 billion Program will:
Support millions of youth jobs by providing direct federal funding for local programs that will put our kids to work.
Formerly Incarcerated People $5 billion Program will:
Create reentry programs for formerly incarcerated people
Small Business Growth $25 billion Program will:
Support entrepreneurship and small business growth in underserved communities
Infrastructure Opportunity Fund $50 billion Program will:
Make significant new investments in public transit systems that connect the unemployed and underemployed to the jobs they need.
Rebuild crumbling water systems to safeguard the public health and save billions of gallons of drinking water.
Work to ensure that these investments are creating jobs and opportunity for local residents and small businesses.
Housing Investment Program $25 billion Program will:
Support families as they save for sustainable homeownership.
Build more affordable rental housing near good jobs and good schools.
Overcome pockets of distress.

 

Historical Performance of Her Democratic Predecessors

  • Historically, the unemployment has fallen by an average of 0.85 percentage points with a Democratic president and divided Congress.
  • The unemployment rate has fallen by an average of 0.43 percentage point with a Democratic president and a Republican Congress.

Education

Issue Clinton’s Position Clinton’s Comments
Charter Schools Supports them “While I do support nonprofit charter schools, which comprise the vast majority of public charter schools today, I don’t support for-profit charter schools. At the federal level, for-profit charter schools are already prohibited from receiving funding through programs like the Replication and Expansion of High-Quality Charter Schools Program – a step I fully support.”
Common Core Supports it “When states came together on Common Core, I thought that was a laudable effort. But, like many Americans, I have concerns about how the Common Core has been implemented.”
Debt-Free College Supports it for all, as well as tuition-free college for some “I’ve put forward a plan to make college tuition-free for working families, and debt-free for all. We’ll also lift the burden of student debt. It’s called the “New College Compact…”

 

  • Clinton won the endorsement of the two largest teachers’ unions: NEA and AFT.

Social Security

Issue Clinton’s Stance Clinton’s Comments
Retirement Age Opposed to raising it “An unfair idea that will particularly hurt the seniors who have worked the hardest throughout their lives.”
Benefit Cuts No cuts
(Opposes closing the long-term shortfall on the backs of the middle class, whether through benefit cuts or tax increases.)
“Social Security works well, but it should work better.”
Benefit Increases Supports them for:
Widows
Family Caregivers
“Social Security works well, but it should work better.”
Cost-Of-Living Adjustments Against it “Social Security must continue to guarantee dignity in retirement for future generations.”
Payroll Tax Raise payroll “tax cap” to an estimated $250,000 “Social Security must continue to guarantee dignity in retirement for future generations.”
Privatization Against it “We can never let Republicans cut or privatize Social Security – we should protect and expand it.”

 

Health Care

Issue Clinton’s Stance
Health Insurance Create a tax credit of up to $2,500 for individuals and $5,000 for families to help pay high out-of-pocket medical costs.
Require insurers to pay for at least three doctor’s visits a year.
Prohibit providers from charging out-of- network rates for treatment at in-network facilities.
Allow all immigrants to buy ACA marketplace coverage.
Medicare Allow Medicare to negotiate drug and biologic prices.
Extend Medicaid drug rebates to low- income beneficiaries.
Allow individuals to buy-into Medicare at a certain age (50 or 55 years old).
Expand Medicaid as part of the ACA.
Medicaid Supports increased federal match rates (100% match for three years) to encourage all states to expand Medicaid.
ACA Supports the law but wants to reduce cost.
Wants to repeal the “Cadillac” tax.

 

Minimum Wage

Issue Current Minimum Wage Clinton’s Recommended Minimum Wage Raise’s Effect on Taxpayers
Minimum Wage $7.25 $12 770,000 jobs would be lost
  • The following states have a minimum wage of $7.50 or higher: Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, South Dakota, Vermont, Washington and West Virginia.
  • California, New York and Washington, D.C., have enacted laws to raise their minimum wage to $15 per hour in the coming years.