Rough notes of Paul Singer’s speech from the 2016 Delivering Alpha Conference. These are VERY rough notes please keep in mind but the theme is not surprising
We’re in the middle of a close to 40 year experiment in how leveraged can the system be and in how many ways. The global derivatives market today is something like 4 trillion 1:26
Central bankers say growth hasn’t really picked up but in the absence of what we’re doing it would have been a lot worse. I don’t think that’s right. I think that’s possibly right as far as it goes, meaning because of the lack of the obvious low hanging fruit of fiscal policies, that would restore levels of growth significantly higher than those described by Ray Dalio and Tim Geithner, would restore that to the developed world. In the absence of fiscal policies in tax, regulation, trade, education, policies that would deal with the the consequences of technological obsolescence, in the absence of those pro growth policies then sure monetary policy is the only game in town.
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