Want to understand who is currently favored in the US Presidential election? Don’t look at the polls, look to the markets. Since Khizr Khan spoke at the Democratic National Convention last Thursday, the stock of materials play Martin Marietta, which ValueWalk had designated as the official Trump proxy, has been slipping, down near 3% over a period when the stock market was generally higher.
The person who is elected to take control of the White House could significantly influence stock market sector success, research from Highland Capital Management says. They have a much more detailed look at the stocks that will win or lose as a result of the election, but their core conclusion is the same on the Martin Marietta pick.
Under both Clinton and Trump, Materials stocks will be the winners, Highland Capital says
On a day that Donald Trump pledged to spend double on US infrastructure that Hillary Clinton has pledged, the Highland Capital piece notes this in its “major winners” category. Under Trump, Materials, Aerospace & Defense, and Domestic Manufacturing are all winners. Add to this list Oil & Gas, Coal, Tech & Telcom Services, Consumer Discretionary and Multinationals.
Clinton, for her part, is viewed as neutral to positive on the Defense Sector. “Her support of releasing the Pentagon from the Budget Control Act is a good sign for the defense and aerospace sector,” Highland Capital was quoted as saying in a Bloomberg Briefs report. The firm thinks the winners under a Clinton administration include Solar & Wind Energy, Health-Care Facilities & Services stocks. Clinton would also seek to expand access to the Affordable Care Act
The commonality among the two candidates is the materials sector, which could be winners regardless of who emerges victorious on November 8, Highland predicted.
Losers under Trump could be winners under Clinton
The “major losers” in a Trump administration include Consumer Staples and Health Care Facilities, Highland Capital says. Consumer Staples could suffer due to a potential 35% to 45% tax on products manufactured oversees. Consumer Staples might benefit under a Clinton administration due to her distaste for tariffs. Trump has said he plans to repeal the Affordable Care Act on his first day in office, resulting in the biggest hit to Health Care Facilities firms who might suffer from lowered demand.
The major losers with a Clinton victory include Pharmaceutical firms & BioTech firms, who might have their “pricing power” challenged, as well as Restaurants.