AMERCO – Sohn Conference Finalist Long AMERCO—An Undervalued $7Billion Company Hidden in Plain Sight Long Investment Idea Price Target: $502/share
Alexandra Esparza
MBA Candidate at the Yale School of Management
May 4, 2016
Also Greenwiid has a great presentation on Exor its mostly images and hard to format so we did not do a post but its great slides you can find the PDF here -> Wood_EXOR
SEE THE FULL CONFERENCE HIGHLIGHTS HERE-> LINK
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Value Creation, but Under the Radar
• Virtually uncovered by the Street – only one sell-side analyst covers
• Orphaned company, doesn’t fall into a distinct coverage bucket • Thin volumes and limited institutional interest
• Market sees a company in the unattractive “Moving Industry” – in reality it is a differentiated DIY company with other optionality attracting a different customer • 3 year CAGR of 7% • Earnings in 9 months ended 12/31/15 up 25.6% y/y
• Margin Expansion since 2010 and ongoing: EBITDA Margin +33% in 2015, +36% in LTM; Profit margin ~14% in LTM
• Founding family has ~50% stake, speaks to skin in the game, have been able to execute
• Relatively clean balance sheet, and a special dividend every year since 2011
The Best at What They Do
– The most storage coverage in NA, 50% market share in otherwise fragmented DIY moving space
– Competitive moat from largest network, bestof-breed product, entrenched brand awareness and goodwill.
– Ryder and Penske now focused on B2B space not B2B, U-Haul continues to dominate
– High barriers to entry given real estate portfolio and largest fleet of trucks of any mover
– Not just another moving company : owns the DIY ecosystem, lots of profitable add-ons
– Innovating on secular trends in the moving industry (i.e. Pick-up U-Boxes)
Millennial Engagement Drives Growth
• Millennials are now the largest US demographic segment, with ~75mm, and a median age of 25
• Millennials increasingly moving in cities; evidence that they delayed marriage but may follow Gen Z to suburbs, potential great market for DIY movers that is underappreciated. Set to capture any uptick in family formation or moving in this demographic as there is pessimism around this group.
Full long AMERCO slides in PDF below
