Sunedison Inc (NYSE:SUNE) stock skyrocketed (percentage-wise) today after the company said it found “no substantial evidence” of fraud. The company probably isn’t out of the woods yet, however, as litigation remains a key concern. CRT Capital analysts expect it to pursue financial restructuring, which they believe would be a good thing in light of the complexity of its financial structure and the multitude of problems it currently faces. It’s widely expected that SunEdison will file for bankruptcy, although nothing official has been announced on this front.
Where is SunEdison’s value?
CRT Managing Director Kirk Ludtke said in a report dated April 14 that he believes most of Sunedison Inc (NYSE:SUNE)’s estate value is its controlling stakes in its yieldcos, TerraForm Global and TerraForm Power. Both yieldcos said in their recent 8K filings that because of the liquidity problems at their parent company, there’s a “substantial risk” it will file for bankruptcy protection. SunEdison’s stakes in TerraForm Global and TerraForm Power are worth about $646 million as of right now, he said.
He does see other possible sources of value, however, like its equity interests in some projects, especially those that are almost finished, and its operating assets, to the extent they’re owned by “the Obligors.” He also said that any service agreements that survive the expected bankruptcy might carry some value as well, although he also noted that SunEdison has not been very forthcoming with financial details. Until the solar company does disclose more information, he said it’s unclear how much, if any value can be assigned to the company’s other assets.
What will happen to SunEdison’s projects if it files for bankruptcy?
Ludtke notes that it isn’t clear what impact a bankruptcy filing would have on SunEdison’s current projects, if it does file. He said usually the agreements that cover such projects include performance milestones and that the financing agreements usually carry some financial covenants. He believes that if SunEdison defaults, it could be a default under both the operating and financing agreements and that there are probably “cross default provisions” between both sets of agreements.
He said a default is only at the project level would probably force negotiations between SunEdison, the power purchase agreement counter-party, and the lenders. He believes the company could see some value from the project if the counter-party agrees to stay and possibly even keep the service agreement. However, if the counter-party exits and a replacement can’t be found quickly, he thinks SunEdison has limited chances of recovering anything from the project.
The CRT Capital analyst pointed to one case in which SunEdison missed some milestones in three projects with Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., which then cancelled the power purchase agreements because of SunEdison’s “precarious financial condition.” In other words, counter-parties might not want to stay in an agreement with the solar company because of how uncertain its future is.
Sunedison Inc (NYSE:SUNE) shares climbed by more than 53% to as high as 60 cents per share in afternoon trades.