be the burden of tomorrow.”

Knowledge ‘Co-production’ and ‘Social Trust’

Such an approach at long-term “visioning” will likely involve a very different way for assessing risks, noted Roger Kasperson, professor of geography at Clark University. Already, “We are in the midst of a major methodological change in the way we analyze hazards.” He explained that researchers are assessing “why the next 30 years are going to be completely different than the last 30 years, and [what are] some of the major difficulties we are going to experience in the process of getting there.”

“There will be much more attention placed on protecting vulnerable people.” –Roger Kasperson

According to Kasperson, “The risk analysis and hazard analysis we’ve relied on have principally [been based] on traditional science. Some people call this the deficit model. Gather your evidence and see what you can find out, with the notion of risk very often tied up with the notion of health risk or fatalities…. Traditional science has been primarily curiosity-driven. But sustainability — the new science that we are just beginning — is much more problem-driven. Traditional science tries to be value-free, while sustainable science is overtly value-centered. Traditional science uses a divide-and-conquer strategy, whereas sustainability science tends to be holistic. There has been little carry-over of traditional science…. Sustainability science is overtly policy-driven; the whole reason for doing it is tied up with policy change.”

Traditional science also tends to be expert-dominated, Kasperson added, whereas sustainability science “relies much more on co-production of knowledge. Traditional science relies, by and large, on the linear development of science, whereas in sustainability science, place-based analysis is becoming much more important. And capacity building and adaptation are major issues that are inevitably a major part of what the analysis should be.”

Finally, in traditional science, “Social trust is not really very relevant, but in sustainability science it is very central.” For sustainability science to take hold, “scientists have to be highly trusted…. We are at the very beginning stages of understanding what needs to be done when it comes to social trust.”

Although addressing long-term risk problems requires an approach that integrates findings from various disciplines, too much of the analysis to date has been founded on the findings of a single discipline, he argued. “We’ll have to rely much more on collaborative research and capacity building when we are looking for alternative futures…. There will be much more attention placed on protecting vulnerable people. Vulnerability did not become a major part of risk analysis until 10 years ago…. The whole role that vulnerability plays is still at a relatively early stage of analysis.”

How Risk Management Can Adapt To An Era Of ‘Truly Remarkable’ Change by [email protected]

How Risk Management Can Adapt To An Era Of 'Truly Remarkable' Change

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