To Do List – Preparing For 2016 by TheLongShortTrader

The purpose of this post is to serve as a large self-reminder (for reasons I don’t quite fully understand, putting things in writing increases the likelihood that I will commit to doing them!). It was largely inspired by my friend. If it helps you, great.

Reviewing 2015

  • Review all 2015 trades (open, closed, realized, unrealized, etc)
  • If + gains (realized or unrealized):
    • Why/causation – “right”, luck, or dumbluck
    • What was/were the basis/bases of my decision-making?
    • What could I have done differently? What was out of my control?
  • If – losses (realized or unrealized):
    • Why/causation – “right”, luck, or dumbluck
    • What was/were the basis/bases of my decision-making?
    • What could I have done differently? What was out of my control?
    • Are there patterns that imply behavioral and/or intellectual/analytical tendencies that can be improved upon?
  • Review errors of omission, i.e. trades/ideas I did not follow through (and the inverse, i.e. bullets dodged)
  • Optional: Do the above (quickly) for all trades since 2011.

Comments: I already know (I think) the answers to the above questions with respect to my biggest 2015 losses/gains.

To Do List – Considerations for 2016

  • Was I simply lucky in 2015, i.e. the macro/market/etc conditions were precisely favorable for me (and those like me) who behave and think certain ways in certain market environments? I may just be a “fool of randomness”
    • in 1970s, Steinhardt was the “genius” and Buffett the “fool”… and visa versa in other environments.
    • Who is looking like the “genius” this year? Who looks like the fool?
    • Are they actually geniuses and/or fools? Is the supposed genius actually a fool of randomness? Is the supposed fool the proverbial Job?
  • If I were merely a “fool of randomness” in 2015, what can I do differently in 2016 so that I may either (a) not be a fool of randomness (b) make money even if I am the fool (or mitigate risk of becoming the ultimate “Thanksgiving Turkey”, the proverbial ‘patsy on the table’)?
  • Make list and/ aggregate existing lists of specific themes, sectors, securities, etc. that are of highest interest for 2016
    • Have I positioned already? if so do I have too much or too little allocation? If not, why not?
  • Look left when everyone else is looking right. Visa versa.
To Do List - Preparing For 2016