Time to Buy Value Stocks? Black Cypress Commentary
- The third quarter was abysmal for stock markets
- October has proven the pain short-lived
- Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks
- But value has the long-term track record of outsized returns
- The typical investor is a notoriously bad timer at buying and selling
- A good advisor helps limit emotion-driven mistakes
The third quarter is now on the books and it was an ugly one for stocks. The S&P 500 fell 6.4% while the Russell 1000 Value, arguably one of the best indices to benchmark “value” stock performance, was down 8.4%.
We commented last month,
“We concede that there are plenty of reasons to hesitate, but we’re putting capital to work. The economic landscape in the U.S. remains favorable to equities and more importantly, ample long-term investment opportunities exist. … And that’s why we’re buyers.”
At least for now, the recent turmoil has proved short-lived. The S&P 500 is up over 8.0% in October and the Russell 1000 Value has posted a similar gain. For the year, the S&P 500 has delivered a 2.5% gain, while the Russell 1000 Value returned negative 1.8%. Growth stocks are up over 6.0% in 2015.
Value stocks’ year-to-date underperformance of growth stocks isn’t a new trend. It’s been a tough going for value for many years now.
Since Black Cypress’s inception in the summer of 2009, over six years ago, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 23%–about 3.0% per year. Growth’s cumulative outperformance stretches back even further, all the way to the end of 2006 before the onset of the recent financial crisis. Growth has bested value by 5% per year for almost nine years. There are only two other instances in history where growth’s dominance reigned longer: the Great Depression (another financial crisis) and the technology bubble of the 1990s.
Such multi-year value underperformance is unusual. Historically, it lasts a few years at most and growth’s cumulative gains are reversed over a one or two-year period. At least that’s the historical precedent.
Since 1927, value stocks have returned an average 2.5% more per year than growth stocks. Academics call this historical outperformance of value over growth the “value premium”. And yet, while the value premium is a well-documented phenomenon, most investors fail to capture it.
Owning an underperforming asset taxes one’s patience. Continuing to own it requires a deep conviction in one’s research as well as the emotional fortitude to withstand the frustration that comes with being at odds with the market. Most investors have neither. And therein lies the likely reason the value premium remains despite widespread knowledge of its existence: capturing it entails suffering through occasional periods of underperformance. Individual investors buy and sell at inopportune times, fund managers fear redemptions and hug their benchmarks, and advisors chase the hottest funds. And the value premium persists.
One of the best studies to illustrate such bad investor behavior and its impact on performance is DALBAR’s Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior. This study doesn’t address the value premium in any way, but it is illustrative of investor actions and their effects, which makes it relevant to our discussion.
The 2014 QAIB stated that over the last 30 years, investors in stock mutual funds averaged annual returns of 4.0%, while the S&P 500 averaged about 11.0%. That is, the very investors that were seeking equity market performance by buying stock mutual funds underperformed stock markets by over 7.0% per year. The culprit? Poor timing decisions. Investors–including individuals, advisors, and consultants–added to their stock positions at or near stock market peaks and sold near market lows. Investors also hesitated to invest again after markets bottomed. Investors are their own worst enemy.
We choose to address these topics for two reasons. First, because we’re value-oriented investors and it has been one of the more inhospitable environments in history for our investment approach.
In the last two years alone, growth stocks have outperformed value stocks by 9.0%. To say the least, it has been a challenge to provide outsized returns with our currently out-of-favor approach. And yet, despite the headwind of growth over value since our firm’s inception, our strategies have held their own with broad markets. Considering what we’ve been up against, including growth’s dominance as well as no opportunity to showcase our risk management practices in this ongoing bull market, we’re pleased with our results. And today, we think our portfolio is about as well-positioned against the market as it has ever been. We like value’s prospects over the next five years and our portfolio in particular.
The second reason we delved into these topics is because one of the most important functions of an investment advisor is to provide a check on emotion-driven decisions. Coaching to buy, sell, and hold, and the timing of these recommendations, often goes overlooked in an advisory relationship. But it can be more important than security selection itself. We’ve scored well together there too.
Our portfolio is well-positioned to capture the value premium and to create excess value through our carefully selected individual company holdings in the years ahead.