Politics

How Will Pakistan-Russia-India Relationship Evolve?

Although the two nations were generally on opposite sides of the Cold War, Pakistan and Russia are gradually building closer ties.

India was in fact a close ally of the Soviet Union, which was its main defense supplier, but now New Delhi is forging increasingly strong ties with the United States rather than Russia. This move encouraged Moscow to lift an arms embargo on Islamabad, but now it appears that cooperation between Russia and Pakistan will move beyond arms sales. writes Arif Rafiq for The National Interest.

How Will Pakistan-Russia-India Relationship Evolve?

Historic alliances called into question

During the Cold War, Pakistan was a staunch ally of the U.S., and even helped to drive the Soviets out of Afghanistan. Later on, despite a brief flirtation with the Soviets, Pakistan remained allies with the U.S. while the Soviets devoted their efforts to India.

The India-Russia alliance continued after the fall of the Soviet Union, with both nations supporting the Afghan Northern Alliance against the Pakistan-backed Taliban. One reason for Russia’s support of India over Pakistan was its concerns about militants operating with Islamabad’s support, especially following a wave of militant attacks in Russia, including the 2004 Beslan school shooting.

Things started to change in 2011 as U.S.-Pakistan relations worsened. A sense of mutual resentment developed due to the continued presence of militants, including Osama bin Laden, in Pakistan, and U.S. military action on Pakistani soil which caused the deaths of innocent people.

Although relations have since improved, 2011 was the year that Pakistan started to seriously consider alternatives to an all-in relationship with the United States. Officials in Moscow saw an opportunity, and were met with a positive reaction by Pakistan.

Russia shows increased interest in cooperation with Pakistan

Moscow’s previous concerns over militants have been reduced, and Pakistan now looks like a key player in keeping regional peace. At the same time India has been drawn closer to the U.S., meaning that Russia has more incentive to explore new trade partnerships, especially in the light of Western sanctions imposed over Ukraine.

Russia’s traditional ally India has been upset by recent arms deals with Pakistan, including Mi-35 combat helicopters. Talks are also underway about the sale of the Sukhoi S-35 fighter jet, and sales to Pakistan could mark the end of Russia’s historic alliance with India.

Economic ties may also be strengthened, with talks about a $2-2.5 billion pipeline deal in their final stages. The pipeline would run from Karachi to Lahore.

Rumors have been swirling for some time that Moscow may invest in the national steel producer Pakistan Steel Mills. As it stands Islamabad plans to privatize the company by 2016, and Russian companies may invest.

Bilateral trade could also increase if a free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union can be reached, a possibility that Pakistan has expressed an interest in. Additionally a Pakistani delegation recently went to Moscow in an attempt to press for lower non-tariff trade barriers for Pakistani goods.

Pakistan-Russia cooperation to continue alongside relationship with India

Evidently relations between India and Russia have regressed, with arms sales to Islamabad one sign of Moscow’s discontent. Analysts also believe that Russia and China may have colluded to block India’s permanent membership of the United Nations Security Council.

However bad the situation looks right now, it seems unlikely that India and Russia will completely break ties. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Moscow in December, and a deal to purchase or co-produce a 5th generation Sukhoi T-50 warplane may be on the table.

Although cooperation may continue on defense matters, Russia and India’s regional strategies appears to be increasingly divergent. China is also an increasingly important actor in Central and South Asia, with important economic and defense partnerships with Pakistan. The question for Russia is whether there is really room for them as an ally of Pakistan?

What next for regional geopolitics?

One possibility is a strategic alliance between Russia, China and Pakistan, but at the moment that seems unlikely. Rafiq believes that it is more like to see Russia and India acting independently of each other, while India struggles to get used to Moscow’s closer ties with Islamabad.

Although we cannot say what will happen in the next few years, Pakistan has done a good job strengthening ties with a number of countries. After staring international isolation in the face, Pakistan has good ties with the permanent members of the UN Security Council, in addition to Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

As such, Pakistan is becoming a “pivot state” in the eyes of geostrategist Ian Bremmer. For now it seems that Islamabad has shown great skill in navigating the choppy waters of international relations.

With China investing heavily and the possibility of further cooperation with Russia, Pakistan is well placed to profit from an alternative axis of power in Asia.

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  • Rsg Blue

    Teri kaali chuut me kya bahut khujli ho rahi hai chinaal?
    Jaa ke teri hijaadi ammi ki kaali luund ghusa de.
    Teri kaali chuut ko shaanti milegi.

  • DOGAR

    acha to is ka matlab yeh hai keh tery saary dost teri maa ko malish kar ke choodty hain??? very bad main tum sab ki gaund bina teil ke thook laga kar choodon ga sally randi ke bachoon meri RAAND(ur m0m) ki izaat looti tum ney ab main tumhari itni izzat choodon gha keh bethne ke qabil nahi raho ge

  • Rsg Blue

    Tujhe ghar lee jaake mein aur mere saare dost teri gaaand aur kaali chuut dono khub maze se maarenge.
    Teil se maalish kar ke aana apni izzat ko.

  • DOGAR

    GHAR LEJA MUJHE TERI MAA KE PAAS GAUNDU

  • Rsg Blue

    Bh0sDK saaly gaaandi hijaadi.

  • DOGAR

    aa kar mera lund choos madarchod kisi bharway ki Chuday huay bachy teri maa ki choot main lund ghusa kar uski gaund par thapar marron

  • Rsg Blue

    Tujhe to teri hijaadi ammi ki kaali luund hi sabse pasand aati hai naa?
    To, jaldi jaa ke choos use aur mujra kar saaly.

  • DOGAR

    Gaundu kisi dalit ki najaiz aulaad tere bhaiyon ko BJP sarkar chood rahi hai. ja keh un ki gaund bacha

  • Rsg Blue

    Teri kaali chuut ko khushi ke maare paseena aane lagi hai.

    Jaa, jaldi jaake teri hijaadi ammi ki pyaas bujha chinaal.

  • DOGAR

    Lun te char

  • Rsg Blue

    Teri kaali chuut ko kitna garv ho raha hoga abhi, madarchood? !!

  • DOGAR

    MAA KA APNI KA RAET IS BAAR THEK LAGANA >>>BHARWAY SALY

  • Rsg Blue

    Your filthy rotten h0le$ stink like $h!t. Work on your imperfections first, [email protected]@l.
    Mujrah to baad me bhi kar sakte ho.

  • DOGAR

    Dear friends and enemies,
    peace with India cannot be happen unless and until we resolve the matter of Kashmir in sophisticated way and for that Rohit suvar kutta @@rohitsengupta:disqus must send his mother accompanied by his sister across LOC,
    Regards
    DOGAR

  • DOGAR

    BHAT WADA DHEECHOOD HAI……WELCOME TO YOUR Å$$ AUCTION idher bhi apni maa ka auction mat karna we are sophisticated people……SEND YOUR MAA AT MY PLACE….BUT…>>>>>KUSHBOO LAGA KEH

  • Rsg Blue

    Madarchood, shaanti rakh.
    Aur chal mujra kar ke dikha.

  • Rsg Blue

    Whatever..
    Russia gonna be disintegrated until it achieves “size zero”!

  • Ravi Ranjan Kumar

    lol,,nice joke

  • Axxa

    That’s not stupidity that’s reality & reality bites……. painful… I understand!!!

  • Axxa

    What? There’s an authoritarian regime in Russia as well as in China…! Just spit anything and it will hit the target…..!

  • Sinamit

    See stupidity that i hv been trying to save you. India is all on your mind.
    Period

  • Axxa

    Yeah, but endian are not following rather drooling in front of every nation, whether they are Arabs, Americans, Russians, Chinese, a perfect example is you…. & on the other hand endians oppress smaller nations like Nepal….. Etc…..
    Day dreamers endians thinks they are the next SUPER POWER……. In fact the serious scarcity of toilets hv made this slum the new ‘SEWER POWER’ of the world.

    Cheers!

  • DOGAR

    Yeah that what I’m talkin about.

  • Sinamit

    I rest my case here coz when i said democracy, obviously China is excluded. About Russia please update yourself- Russian is fundamentally structured as a multi-party democractic republic.

  • Axxa

    China & Russia are not democratic nations…..and far as India is concern, minorities are persecuted there, the so called democracy is just an artificial n bogus one.

  • DOGAR

    talk for your self… you cannot deny the facts which are claimed by your own politicians and media as well as your defence analysts. I think its time for you to GROW UP.

  • Sinamit

    Universal rule, follow smart ppl.

  • DOGAR

    see the replies and hatred of your people on this forum and then say it again,

  • Sinamit

    What world says – “reduced business with Russia”
    What you understood “messing with Russia”
    That’s the problem with the whole Pakistan. They all have some kind of mental issues and always take things like they are born to avenge. Not the rest of the world.

  • Sinamit

    Wrong question, your question should be why not with democratic nation?
    May you know the reason.

  • Sinamit

    As i already said, you’re new to this world. Try to learn first.

  • imran520

    Pakistani nation is not terrorist . Only Pakistani leaders are terrorist like USA.
    And Russian and Pakistan relations are good.

    http://www.siyasat.pk/

  • DOGAR

    oye aa baey gashti deya..

  • DOGAR

    I must say that our Elders were right about what they said “BAGAL MAIN CHURI AUR MUNH MAIN RAM RAM” If these lowlives have made their mind to mess with russia then they are fukkd upp already,they are messing with china, funding supporting terrorism in Pakistan also trying hard to sabotage CPEC with out knowing our geographical advantage.
    they make one move they will regret it in the form of segregation of the rest of india.

  • DOGAR

    AHH…Deploying 8,00,000 soldiers in Jammu & Kashmir is called democracy in india, ok and what about more than 1,00,000 muslims killed violated and raped alone in Kashmir till now.
    killing over 2000 Muslims in gujarat, killing and torturing sikhs in punjab and all over india, genocide of JAINS and OTHER CHRISTIANS, violating the rights of Dalits and racism against Tamils is called “SAB KA SAATH SAB KA VIKAAS” is that what you call a democracy?

  • Axxa

    Yeah….. make more nuclear reactors & very soon whole India will be just like the Fukushima nuclear disaster….. Japan, technologically one of the most advanced country still battling from it….. The indian story will be a horrific one…… & Russia isn’t Nepal tht anyone can stop them doing anything….. & sure put penalties on them …… Russians are building good relations with Pakistan & looking beyond their unworthy old slum friend….. It’s time to kick someone @$$…..!

  • DOGAR

    Very well said.

  • DOGAR

    for that …we (Pakistanis) should set aside our differences and gather under one banner(flag).
    regards

  • Axxa

    Which democratic nations you’re talking about!

  • Axxa

    Oh! Sorry….thnx for remembering me!

  • DOGAR

    We are almost there to call Pakistan a terrorists or KHAWARIJ free country all we have to do is to TRUST OUR BROTHERS IN UNIFORMS AND CONDEMN ANY TYPE OF MEDIA HYPE AGAINST THEM,because some of the media personals,channels,anchors and even MOLVI’S as well as political parties/politicians,NGOs are traitors of the MOTHERLAND.
    OPEN UP YOU EYES MY BROTHERS AND SISTERS they(all mentioned above)are playing another 1972 with us,

  • DOGAR

    If this alliance happens..it will be the most Powerful alliance of this part of hemisphere,and it should happen because Pakistan’s Intrusts and alliance will grow up with Russians and China than those of Americans,who only show up once or twice in a decade.

  • parijat chauhan

    What a joke!!1 peace and hospitality where even foreign players comes under gun fire :D You made my day!

  • parijat chauhan

    you forgot north korea to include in list

  • DOGAR

    SO,TRUE

  • Sinamit

    “…. instead of keep on fighting wars” you seems to be new to this world asking this stupid question.
    Pakistan is controlled by its military. A military & a democratic nation can never be allies.

  • Sinamit

    Pakistan relies on free stuff what ever is thrown at them by China & US.
    Russian will not be giving freebies to them.

  • Sinamit

    Correction, its a terrorist “camp”

  • MeraAbhipraye

    No matter how exuberant some of the Pakistanis are, Russia will not be foolish to let Indian market slip away from its grip, specifically in defense where Russia has anything of significance to offer.

  • MeraAbhipraye

    According to you, wasn’t Bin Laden found in India? I really applaud your IQ.

  • MeraAbhipraye

    Who is every one? China and perhaps Russia? The West is pretty much shunning Pakistan at the moment. Now Russia will not be stupid to let a large market like India slip away.

  • Rsg Blue

    Pakistan is a terrorist nation. Russia would regret later.

  • Rsg Blue

    Your height of ignorance is amazing!

  • Jawwad

    Bharat Trivedi saheb, have you heard this hindi kahawat “Khisiani Billi khamba nochey”.

  • CRIC

    What Pakistan government teach to their people only hate towards India. Kashmir was not the Pakistan problem but they engaged in. China and India border problem because of England, because England did not draw clear line between India China border. Indian politician were full and sleeping, they should have resolve that problem log time back. Indian politician are still full. In future India may break again because of its diversity and political problem with neighbor country.
    Pakistan is already success in Kashmir, Pakistan already had wash his hand on Punjab problem, they are fully open to support kahalistan. Kahlistan will return back they see India is breaking. Indians still has time, if they think right, they will remain for long time.

  • Amit

    Russia and India is Good Friends country
    We Like Russia and we respect them
    I wish god That relation will Improve very soon

  • Adnan Fayyaz

    China, Russia, Afghanistan and Pakistan should form one single block for fight against evil India. CRAP.

  • himanshumarwaha

    Oh, I am not worried about that at all. From long time I wanted Pakistan to be a peaceful and stable country and be more prosperous; that will also decrease militancy there and neighbor countries.
    And I’m sure if Pakistan is able to get rid of Radical minded Mullahs and proxy wars; sure it can grow good. It has vast minerals that still needed to be explored and that’s why China is interested in Pak. But I have all good wishes for Pak to grow and be stable. But I’m telling you right now; it is not possible if you don’t let 65 year old Kashmir issue go; and keep empowering terrorist groups and proxy wars in any shape.

    Oh and the article you mentioned top 10 economy by 2025 was wrong and had many flaws. I’m sure pak will grow if it works on its issue; but I’m not sure to what level. I guess it depends upon Paks priority. they want to get polio vaccination and send girls to school too; or they want to talk to Taliban and play games.

  • himanshumarwaha

    I don’t live in India :) so no; I read international media news not Indian news.

  • Bharat Trivedi

    Pakistan is not a stable country. It has no market value unless you want to piss off India for some reason.

  • Imran Ali

    Pakistan and china friendship is very strong for more than 60 years now, Every one wants to make friendship with pakistan because Pakistan geographic position is very important.

  • Faisal Ashfaq

    Currently Pakistan has better relationship with iran than saudi, but im sure that’s what indian media and “experts” tell you.

  • pakzee

    That be one strong block to mess with.

  • hakeemalmedico

    Why cant Russia,China,India and Pakistan form 1 block ???

  • Don Mattrick

    Pakistan must not read too much into this blossoming of relation. Even when Russia had a good relationship with India the later made sure that it did not spill over! My point India’s relation with Russia was in a way that did not antagonize America. My reading is that Pakistan’s relation then with US as in the present case Russia was always to score some point over India. India does not see it that way! Both Pakistan and Russia are in precarious situation politically and neither country has a leadership succession plan. India’s deep commitment to democratic credentials will win out!

  • Live Jojo

    The world should understand those mis-understandings which are spreading against Pakistan, because leaders of the world knows importance of Pakistan, there are some forces who do not want to see the economically stable Pakistan thats the reason those rumors spreads all over the world in social media, tv channels, news papers, but time will tell the truth, the word “AFPAK” is the evidence itself created from the west, but we changed that word into “CPEC” and still changing the gaming scenarios which was played very well, but now they are all going to fail to try de-stabilize Pakistan.

  • Abdul Mojeeb Tawqeer

    This alliance is useful for world peace and can make hindrance in solo flight for destroying countries under the curtain of terrorism, Weapon of Mass Destruction and jasmine revolution.

  • Axxa

    Pakistan, Russia, China MINUS india is more logical and prolific for the region.

  • Live Jojo

    100% Agreed.

  • Bil

    Poorly views, Pakistan is highly regarded as attracted country for investment as world is now coming to Pakistan due to its peace, hospitable and friendly behaviour. Secondly, Pakistan has huge potential with 200 million people and emerging economy, to be in next top ten economies by 2025, you need not to be worried!

  • Bil

    Endia is a poor terrorist country Russia and China knows that , so you keep away!

  • ValueWalk

    It seems much better if India shake hands with Pakistan for better future instead of keep on fighting wars, spending billion + on arms etc which leads 1.5 billion people to nowhere.

  • laldo

    >India needs to boosts its trade with Russia from a mere $10 billions out of which 60% is defense purchase.
    >Build more nuclear reactors.
    >Block sale of defense deals with Pakistan & start serial production of SU35mki’s & PAK T50 with HAL.
    >3 missiles frigates built in Russia in spite of our Indian shipyards building warships,must have a clause of penalties in case of hike in cost & late deliveries.
    >K226t “Make in India projects shud be enough to milk Russia defense sectors.

  • MKS

    Russia and China would be really dumb if they choose to have friendship with pakistan at the cost of their relations with India.

  • Ghulam Lone

    This is a complete rip off of Arif Rafiq’s article “Pakistan: Russia’s New Best Friend?” that was published in The National Interest on September 27, 2015 (2 days prior to the publication of this plagiarized article).

  • Alex K

    India will deal with anyone. Not sure if India has long memory and remembers what happened in 1970th and what Nixon said about India leader back than.. It’s all history now.. Modi has a fairly large responsibility to over 1.2 billion people.. India will stay neutral.. Probably.. As far as Russian India Pakistan.. Maybe Putin want to lay a gas pipe to India..? Russian already doing some LNG deliveries.. but nothing works better than a pipe.

  • himanshumarwaha

    Good perspective; Just a thought that Pak does not have good relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia any more. Qatar is mostly business. In-fact from its neighbors it has good relation with only China. Although I read in my company mag an article that would Pakistan be another Taiwan for China by 2050. As investment goes; Pakistan is locking its fate for that.