Eight Ways To Know It’s Time To Sell Your Stock by George Athanassakos, The Globe And Mail
Much has been written about when to buy a stock. There is a well-defined process – look for possible undervalued stocks by focusing on low price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-book (P/B) stocks, examine the stocks to determine their intrinsic value and finally make the decision to buy only if the margin of safety is satisfied.
But a disciplined approach to investing implies not only to know when to buy, but also when to sell. Frequently, the sell decision is more difficult than the buy decision. Many emotions come into place in the sell decision as well – such as, ‘What if I sell too early and kick myself for selling if the stock then rises in value?’ or ‘Why should I sell at a loss and face the pain of regret that I made a mistake?’ That is why it is important for investors to have an analytical approach and a checklist that will also help them guard against the possible emotional backlash of having to make a sell decision. Here is a checklist on when to sell.
- When management did not deliver on a major promise, or lied. Many times management tells investors what they want to hear and makes many promises. So if they said they would write off a division, but instead they expand it, this is a major deviation from what was promised and one has to wonder what else they lie for.
- When the balance sheet is deteriorating. When accounts receivable and inventories start to pile up, deviating from historical or industry norms, it implies the balance sheet is deteriorating. The same is the case when hidden assets, such as customer relations and product portfolios, deflate due to the advent of a new technology or a change in consumer tastes. Or when goodwill exceeds 20 per cent of the company’s assets and debt piles up in excess of what is typical for companies in the same risk class.
- When the market price rises beyond intrinsic value. A disciplined approach dictates that an investor should sell when the stock price exceeds a stock’s intrinsic value. This is the most straightforward reason to sell.
- When the stock has risen so much that it represents a high proportion of an investor’s portfolio.
An investor should never let a stock dominate one’s portfolio like Nortel’s stock did for many portfolios in the early 2000s. While over-diversification is detrimental to portfolio returns, an undiversified portfolio increases risk inordinately. That is why most value investors impose position limits on the stocks they own. An individual stock should not be allowed to exceed more than 10 per cent to 15 per cent of one’s portfolio.
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