MannKind continues to be one of the most closely-watched stocks on Wall Street, receiving a number of downgrades and price target cuts recently. Analysts have been carefully tracking prescriptions of the company’s newly launched inhaled insulin product Afrezza. The drug is MannKind’s first on the market and will play a crucial role in its future—and whether it has one at all.

MannKind Corporation Battles To Stay Above $5

MannKind’s Afrezza not selling well

Analyst Adnan Butt and the team at RBC Capital Markets have been tracking Afrezza prescriptions and sales each week. Last week they reported the numbers for the week ending March 13.

They recorded 161 total prescriptions, a 42.5% week over week increase. They found 143 new prescriptions, an increase of 38.8%, Afrezza continues to trail far behind other forms of insulin, however, with a 0.05% share of the insulin market, although that’s still a slight increase from the previous week’s 0.03%. The market leaders are Novolog with a 46.06% share and Humalog with a 40.49% share.

So far reports on Afrezza’s reception have been mixed, with some signs suggesting that early feedback is encouraging and others indicating that the inhaled insulin’s effectiveness is limited.

Can MannKind meet estimates?

The RBC team estimates $100,000 in sales this year based on a cumulative 563 total prescriptions year to date and an assumed net price of between $158 and $195. For the full year, they’re estimating $46.1 million in revenue. In order to hit that estimate, the number of total Afrezza prescriptions must increase by between 10.1% and 10.7%.

The consensus estimate for first quarter sales is $5.1 million, which according to Butt and team, means sales must rise by about 17,000% to hit that forecast. For the full year, consensus estimates call for $110.1 million in sales for MannKind.

Where will MannKind stock go next?

As of this writing, shares of MannKind were down 1.15% to $5.14 per share. Today’s floor on the stock (at least as of this writing) appears to be $5.12 per share, as shares have not fallen below that level yet.

Benzinga‘s Christian Tharp notes that MannKind stock hasn’t been following the rest of the market. The broader market has rallied within the last 12 months, but MannKind shares haven’t done the same. The biotechnology company’s shares have lost more than half of their value, hitting bottom at $4.50 per share. Since then, the stock has climbed to $8, but it has slipped back own again.

Tharp suggests that the “key level” for the stock is $5 per share, pointing out that it has continued to provide a support for shares. If MannKind falls under $5, however, it could approach the 52-week low of $4.45 per share.