GoPro continues to be a very polarizing stock, earning a price target cut from one firm the same week as a rating upgrade from another. A third firm argues this week that right now GoPro’s stock price offers an “especially attractive entry point.”
Barclays lowers GoPro earnings estimates
In a report dated March 26, Barclays analysts Joseph Wolf and Brian Finneran said they slashed their price target for GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) by 15% from $55 to $47 per share and maintained their Equal Weight rating on the stock. They also trimmed their 2015 earnings per share estimate from $1.45 to $1.42 per share and their 2016 estimate from $2 to $1.87 per share.
As of this writing, shares of GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) were down 0.35% to $43.08 per share, a far cry from the stock’s high around $90 per share. The Barclays team said at $90 per share, they were uncomfortable with the pricing-in of expected media monetization revenue. They are now comfortable with GoPro’s valuation because they believe it can be supported by only the hardware business, which is important because the company’s media business doesn’t really exist yet.
They further said the worries of a major selloff after the end of the insider lockup period are now over.
Not much room for upside
Perhaps the biggest problem Barclays sees with GoPro right now is the seasonality of the business. They point out that 40% of the company’s sales were in the fourth quarter, which creates a timing problem because they don’t see much room for upside right now.
They warn that investors who buy into GoPro now may be subject to execution risk. The company isn’t expected to unveil new products until the fourth quarter and management hasn’t talked much about what’s coming this year. The Barclays team does point out, however, that execution has been good since the first quarter of 2013.
FBN remains bullish on GoPro
While Barclays thinks now isn’t a good time to buy into GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO), FBN Securities analyst Shebly Seyrafi made the opposite argument in a research note dated March 25. He reiterated his Outperform rating and $75 per share price target on the company.
He thinks worries about competition from Xiaomi’s Yi camera are overblown. The Chinese manufacturer’s camera is far less expensive than GoPro’s cameras, but he notes that many recent reviews of the Yi have not been good. For example, one review complained about the camera’s picture quality, its lens, the way it handles dynamic light situations and the fact that it doesn’t have any image stabilization on it.
Ambarella offers positive data point for GoPro
Further he noted that Ambarella recently posted strong results and guided for a 56% to 66% year over year increase in revenue for the April quarter. Cameras are expected to remain between 94% and 96% of the company’s revenue, and the FBN analyst sees further upside to the company’s guidance.
He noted a correlation between GoPro Inc (NASDAQ:GPRO) and chip maker Ambarella, pointing out that about 40% of Ambarella’s sales are to GoPro. Additionally, he pointed out that there’s been a big divergence between Ambarella’s and GoPro’s stock prices. Ambarella is close to its all-time highs, climbing more than 40% in the last three months. Meanwhile GoPro shares have declined more than 30% in the same time frame. Seyrafi thinks Ambarella’s momentum is a good thing for GoPro.
