Facebook stock hit a new high on Tuesday as investors greedily gobbled up shares at higher and higher prices. But wait just a minute, say analysts at Trefis. They see tremendous downside to the social network’s shares, saying they think the stock is worth just $64.02 per share and that the company’s market capitalization should only be $185.5 billion.

Those numbers compare to the current price of around $80 per share and current market cap of around $224.7 billion.

Facebook Inc (FB) Worth Only $64 A Share: Trefis

Facebook: a sum of the parts

Trefis analysts typically analyze what a company is worth through a sum of the parts analysis and using a discounted cash flow methodology.

In their report dated Dec. 23, 2014, they estimate that text and display ads make up about 87% of Facebook’s value. They say transactions on virtual goods make up 3.5% making the segment worth about $878 million, while social commerce makes up 2.5% of the social network’s value or about $135 million. Facebook’s cash, net of debt, makes up 7% of the company’s value, according to Trefis analysts.

Projections for FB’s user growth

The firm’s analysts expect Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) to grow its average monthly unique users from the current 1.35 billion to nearly 2.15 billion by 2021. They note that one of the most important factors in the social network’s growth is getting its platform unblocked in China, which management has been trying to do for some time. Continued success in mobile is also important for growth.

The analysts estimate that by 2021, there could be 4.2 billion internet users globally, which suggests there could still be room for more upside. They see the possibility for more than 15% upside to their price estimate if Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) grows its average users to about 2.5 billion by 2021. However, if the social network can only grow its user base to about 1.8 billion by then, they see a downside risk of more than 10% to their price estimate.

Revenue per Facebook page

The Trefis team projects revenue per thousand page views to increase from about 42 cents last year to about $1.17 by 2021. They note that the company has been working on improving engagement through Timelines, Graph Search, News Feed ads and making integration with third-party content providers more seamless.

If the social network can grow its revenue per thousand views to $1.40, they see an upside of 15% to their estimate, but if Facebook only increases it to $1, they see the possibility of 10% downside.

Shares of Facebook Inc (NASDAQ:FB) edged upward less than 1% in premarket trading this morning.

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