Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) will sell 71.5 million iPhones during the current quarter, driven by the holiday season demand. The new iPhone 6 and 6 Plus will together account for 56.75 million, says KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. In his latest research note to investors, Kuo forecasts the iPhone 6 to lead the pack with 41.65 million units, followed by the iPhone 6 Plus with 15.1 million.

iPhone 6

iPhone 6 sales to decline 48% in Q1

KGI Securities’ estimate suggests an 82% QoQ jump in the iPhone shipments. The Cupertino company sold 39.3 million iPhones during the September quarter. The company had sold 51 million iPhones in the December quarter of 2013. He noted that the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Plus continues to suffer from supply shortages. It confirms strong demand for Apple’s phablet. Kuo added that suppliers continue to face production issues.

Holiday shopping season includes two of the biggest online sales: Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Once the shopping season is over, the iPhone sales will decline significantly in the first quarter of 2015. Total iPhone shipments in the March quarter are expected to slide to 49.43 million units. The iPhone 6 sales will decline 48.1% QoQ to 21.62 million units, while the iPhone 6 Plus shipment is expected to come down 32.3% to 10.22 million.

Apple expected to discontinue the iPhone 4S and 5C

The only two models witnessing an uptick in the March quarter will be the iPhone 5C and iPhone 4S. Kuo expects promotional pricing to boost demand for the iPhone 5C by 77.3%. Meanwhile, Apple is expected to focus more on marketing the iPhone 4S in emerging markets. However, KGI Securities expects Apple to discontinue the iPhone 5C and 4S next year to streamline its smartphone offerings.

KGI expects Apple to build on the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus next year with upgraded hardware. That means with the release of the iPhone 7, the iPhone 6 will become a mid-tier option and the iPhone 5S will be available for free on contract. With the recent iPad upgrades, all mobile devices from Apple will be TouchID equipped by next year.

Apple shares gained 0.39% to $116.80 in pre-market trading Monday.